IRGC says it shot down a US MQ-1 drone over Qeshm Island

The IRGC said its Aerospace Force intercepted and destroyed the drone using an advanced air defense system integrated into Iran's national air defense network, according to IRNA. It described the aircraft as a US MQ-1 reconnaissance and combat drone and said the incident was the 16th MQ-1 it had brought down. The Guards said Iranian forces had downed 16 MQ-1 and 56 MQ-9 drones in all, a claimed total of 72 aircraft of the two types; the 56th MQ-9 was claimed on 4 November. Anadolu Agency also reported the claim.

There was no immediate confirmation from the United States, and such claims generally cannot be independently verified. The IRGC also said it brought down two more US MQM-170 reconnaissance drones over Qeshm Island using electronic warfare, taking its claimed total of that type to six; the statements gave no further details, Anadolu reported. The claim came amid continued tensions between Tehran and Washington after the US-Israeli offensive against Iran began on 28 February. Iran has repeatedly reported intercepting US drones over Qeshm and surrounding waters.

The 4 November MQ-9 claim

A day earlier, the IRGC said its air defenses shot down an MQ-9 over the Strait of Hormuz at 4:30 a.m., the 56th of that type it claims to have destroyed. Tasnim reported the drone was hit by a new, advanced air defense system, and that Iranian forces have destroyed more than 50 MQ-9s since the war began. There was no immediate confirmation from the US military.

US losses and replacement cost

Since Washington launched attacks on Iran in late February, the US has lost or sustained damage to 81 aircraft and drones, according to a Congressional Research Service report. The cost of replacing the lost equipment was estimated at $1.9 billion to $3.3 billion.

The two figures measure different things: the CRS count covers every US aircraft and drone lost or damaged, while the IRGC figure covers two drone types it says it destroyed. The claimed 72 is not a like-for-like share of the US total and has not been independently verified.

Oil exports through Hormuz

Iran has tried to choke off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data cited by CNBC on 16 October showed crude exports through the waterway at 9.4 million barrels a day in the week to that Wednesday, about 70% of the prewar average.