Only 23% of Germans expect Merz coalition to last until 2029, YouGov poll finds

The survey also found that 44% expect the coalition to break apart in 2027 or 2028. Another 13% expect it to fall before the end of this year, and 20% did not express an opinion. YouGov questioned 2,202 eligible voters between 16 and 19 October.

What the poll found

Pessimism runs through the coalition's own voters. Among CDU/CSU supporters, 53% expect the government to collapse before 2029, while 32% expect it to serve the full term. Among SPD supporters the split is 46% to 34%.

Franziska Hoppermann, a CDU official, rejected the prospect of an early collapse. Asked by Munich newspaper Abendzeitung whether the coalition would last until 2029, she replied in the affirmative, stressing that "everyone is aware of their responsibility." She pointed to the need for major welfare reforms, strained public finances and a difficult security situation, and cited an upward revision to Germany's economic growth forecast. "What we are doing is having an effect," she said.

Why the coalition is under pressure

The poll follows state elections that went badly for Merz's conservatives. In the last fortnight, the CDU was beaten to first place in Berlin, pummelled in the polls in Saxony-Anhalt and pushed out of parliament altogether in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the BBC reported. The AfD won 38.2% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and about 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, according to Anadolu.

"This is the worst election defeat the CDU has suffered in years, or even decades," Merz said after the Saxony-Anhalt result. "Of course, there will have to be consequences," he added, POLITICO reported.

The Atlantic Council said it is uncertain whether the government will last the full parliamentary term to 2029 without major changes. An early collapse would leave the pension, income tax and budget measures still pending, the think tank said.

Why no one moves against Merz

A separate YouGov poll found 48% of Germans do not expect Merz to remain chancellor through the end of the year. An n-tv survey found 55% want him to resign.

Wolfgang Muno, a professor of comparative politics at the University of Rostock, told Anadolu that a snap election would amount to "political suicide" for the CDU/CSU and the SPD because both are polling below their results in the last federal election. Neither North Rhine-Westphalia's premier, Hendrik Wuest, nor Bavaria's Markus Soeder has said he would be willing to step in, Muno said.

Jürgen Hardt, the CDU/CSU's foreign policy spokesperson in parliament, told the BBC that swapping chancellors is not the answer, since any successor would face the "same challenges." No one in the CDU has challenged Merz openly, the BBC reported, despite persistent rumours of a Kanzlertausch, or chancellor swap.

The government's record

The government has passed over 170 laws, including restrictions on migration, a reform of the Burgergeld minimum-income guarantee and a stabilization of pensions, according to the Atlantic Council. In a survey from the end of March, 86% of Germans were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the government's work, 12% were satisfied and 1% very satisfied.

The Atlantic Council also notes that the economics ministry halved its growth forecast and raised its inflation projection for 2026, with business expectations at their lowest level in almost three years. More recently, leading economic institutes raised growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 above 1%, the BBC reported.