Blair meets Herzog in push to revive stalled Gaza reconstruction plan

Blair's mission

Herzog met Blair on Thursday between rounds of the president's consultations with Israeli political parties, Ynet reported. During the visit Blair is expected to discuss the first stages of the plan, including the entry of a technocratic committee into Gaza and the establishment of an international stabilization force. He is scheduled to meet several other Israeli officials.

Officials familiar with the negotiations describe a significant deadlock, with no meaningful movement in the American framework.

Reconstruction: $2.45bn against $71.4bn of need

The Board of Peace unveiled a $2.45 billion plan in September to begin rebuilding Gaza. That is a fraction of the need: the board cited an EU and UN assessment released in April that put recovery and reconstruction needs at $71.4 billion over the next decade.

Rebuilding waits on disarmament. Israel has said there would be no reconstruction in Gaza without Hamas's complete disarmament, so the timetable is set by a political deal nobody has closed.

Hamas remains armed and continues to rebuild its ranks, while the Israeli military keeps up operations targeting its operatives, Ynet reported. Israel's 26th Knesset election produced no clear parliamentary majority and no certainty that a stable government can be formed, leaving officials in Jerusalem unsure what Israeli policy will look like in the coming months. Washington has kept pressing for progress on the plan even after the vote.

A year after the ceasefire

The plan's first phase produced a ceasefire on 10 October 2025 and the release of the last hostages seized in the 2023 attacks, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, Reuters reported.

Later phases foresaw Hamas disarming, governance by a Palestinian body overseen by the Board of Peace, and a gradual Israeli withdrawal handing territory to the International Stabilization Force. A year on, most of that has not happened.

Gaza's health ministry says at least 1,400 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire, without disclosing militant casualties. The Israeli military says five of its soldiers have been killed by Palestinian militants or in combat. Israel says its strikes target Hamas, which denies trying to rearm. Israeli troops now control around two-thirds of Gaza, up from the 53% marked by the plan's initial yellow line.

The advancing yellow line has squeezed the population of 2 million into a shrinking coastal strip where they shelter in tents and damaged buildings. Israeli-backed Palestinian militias opposed to Hamas use the Israeli-held zone to launch attacks into Hamas-controlled areas.

Aid below the plan's own minimum

More than 1.2 million people in Gaza face acute hunger, the IPC says.

In an August report the IPC cited data showing an average of 227 trucks a day carried humanitarian and commercial supplies into Gaza from the ceasefire to the end of May, less than half the 600 minimum stipulated in the plan.

Israel says around 600 trucks a day are entering and that it is meeting its obligations. COGAT, the Israeli agency controlling access to Gaza, did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the IPC figure. Aid agencies say Israel blocks metal tent poles, engine oil and spare parts on the grounds that Hamas could use them for military purposes.

Disarmament is the hinge

Hamas has said it agreed to hand its weapons to a US-backed Palestinian technocratic government for storage, while rejecting the word disarmament.

The BBC reported in August that Israel insists Hamas fully disarm before any pullout, and wants surrendered weapons destroyed rather than stored by a Palestinian committee. Israel also objects to Turkey and Qatar taking part in verification checks.

After Kushner's talks with Netanyahu that month, Israel and the Board of Peace agreed to establish two working groups. One would cover disarmament and demilitarisation, to be completed before any reconstruction; the other sanitation, clean water and public health. Kushner said then that there could be progress in as little as 30 days on starting to take Hamas's weapons out, but that cooperation was needed from both sides.

What happens next

Israeli security officials expect Hamas to run an international public relations campaign around winter conditions in Gaza.

Officials familiar with the matter say the campaign will highlight storm damage, inadequate infrastructure and shortages of warm clothing, hoping pressure will force Israel to scale back its operations.

The technocratic Palestinian body, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, was appointed in January under Ali Shaath and has yet to enter Gaza.