ANC on about 32% with 36% of votes counted in South Africa's municipal election

Vote tallying was still at an early stage and the outcome could change significantly, Reuters reported. A projection by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research suggested the ANC could finish on the same share, and put turnout at around 52%, higher than in 2021. Louw Nel, senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, said an outcome of 32% would be "the party's worst nightmare coming true". The ANC has tended to do worse in municipal elections than nationally. President Cyril Ramaphosa said municipal failures had contributed to declining public trust. Pre-election polls had suggested ANC support could fall below 40%, after the party dropped under half the vote in 2021 for the first time since 1994.

The DA declared an early victory in Cape Town, where official data showed it on 60% of votes counted so far. Johannesburg was too close to call, with only 17% of votes counted.

ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe told journalists the trends were not final. "We may improve. ... Major areas, townships, and other areas have not been counted yet," he said. The DA's mayoral candidate for Johannesburg, Helen Zille, said: "It's still early days. But I think we will do well and I am very excited". In KwaZulu-Natal, Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe party and the Inkatha Freedom Party were both ahead of the ANC, Reuters reported.

Coalition talks take shape

With 37% of voting districts counted, parties were bracing for tough coalition negotiations, EWN reported. ActionSA national chairperson Michael Beaumont said his party would not enter talks with red lines but would insist on clear principles and accountability. "We are willing to negotiate in the interest of residents with any political party, provided they meet those non-negotiables I've outlined," he said. The DA said it had not ruled out working with anyone, and that the talks would be shaped by the outcome of the vote. "We don't want to talk about allocation positions; we want to talk about how to get systems working in municipalities," the party said.

ANC KwaZulu-Natal provincial secretary Mdumuseni Ntuli told EWN the party would first assess the coalitions it entered after the 2024 elections, and decide whether to replicate them with the same parties in local government or take a different route. Coalition deals will decide who controls councils, how executive posts and budgets are allocated, and whether administrations can deliver basic services. Several key municipalities were heading for coalition governments, Reuters reported. Parties then have two weeks from the declaration of results, expected on Sunday, to form governments.

The national-local split

The ANC and the DA have never been partners in a single municipal coalition, before or after the Government of National Unity formed in June 2024, according to Mistra's 2026 Coalitions Barometer. Across 175 municipal administrations tracked since the 2021 local elections, the ANC was a member of 90 and the DA of 52, with no overlap. Mistra counted 28 cases where a municipal government containing one of the two parties was ended by a motion of no confidence and replaced by one containing the other. Nationally, the GNU controlled 287 of the 400 National Assembly seats, above the 201 needed for a majority.

In Makana Local Municipality in the Eastern Cape, the ANC took 10 of 25 seats, short of the 13 needed to govern alone, EWN reported. The DA took six and the new Makana United Civic Movement four.

What happens next

Counting continued on Thursday, with the Electoral Commission of South Africa moving towards collating results. Voters were choosing councillors for eight metropolitan municipalities, 44 district councils and 205 local councils, 257 municipalities in all. Final results were expected on Sunday, and a dramatic loss could open up the field to more competition in the 2029 national election, Reuters reported.

Both big parties have centralised control over the negotiations, TimesLIVE reported. The DA's federal executive plans to meet regularly after results are announced to consider and approve coalition arrangements, while the ANC's secretary-general's office will oversee its talks.

ANC national executive committee member Parks Tau said the approach to coalitions would be determined by the national leadership.