Gold Derby experts put Fielder and Oppenheim fifth for Best Director

Fielder and Oppenheim enter the top five

The jump comes two weeks after You Can See Everything entered Gold Derby's Top 10 for Best Picture. The panel now gives Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim a 48% chance of a Best Director nomination, up 22 percentage points from a week earlier, and puts them fifth, past Denis Villeneuve, whose Dune: Part Three is still a month and a half from opening, Gold Derby said.

The four ahead are Christopher Nolan for The Odyssey at 100%, Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo for La Bola Negra at 96%, Martin McDonagh for Wild Horse Nine at 92% and Olivia Wilde for The Invite at 60%. In Gold Derby's overall odds, which include experts, editors and users, Fielder and Oppenheim trail Villeneuve by less than 1 percentage point for the final slot.

A first for documentary directors

Gold Derby said a nomination would be the first for both filmmakers. They are also eligible as producers in Best Picture. If Fielder and Oppenheim and the La Bola Negra team both get in, it would be the first time two directing duos were nominated in the same year, according to Gold Derby. Gold Derby said a nod could also make them the first people nominated for directing a documentary.

A24's campaign

Variety reported that A24 submitted Fielder and Oppenheim for Best Director and the film for Best Picture, with Fielder, Oppenheim, Tatiana Bears, Maggie Ambrose and Jack Davis listed as producers. The film follows Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes through the 34 days before she reported to prison and keeps rolling afterward. Variety confirmed that Amanda Seyfried, who plays Holmes and appears as herself, will be campaigned in supporting actress, and that Fielder, credited as himself, will not submit as a performer.

Box office and reviews

Variety reported that the film had its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival as a surprise, and that its existence had not been public before then. It opened to $15 million over the weekend, a number most nonfiction films never see across a full run. It also holds a record-setting 99 on Metacritic, 98% on Rotten Tomatoes, 4.7 out of 5 on Letterboxd and 9.4 on IMDb. The film is eligible for Best Documentary Feature.

No documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture in 98 ceremonies. Variety asked whether the race was actually 'Odysseus vs. Elizabeth Holmes,' after noting that several studios are trying to frame it as David vs. Goliath against Nolan's billion-dollar The Odyssey.

What happens next

Nominations for the 99th Academy Awards will be announced on 21 January, Variety reported. The ceremony will take place on 14 March and air live on ABC, with Conan O'Brien hosting. Critics awards start arriving at the end of November, Yahoo Entertainment noted.