Sanae Takaichi set for Japan premiership after LDP-Ishin coalition deal

The 231 seats matter more than the headline. Japan's next government will start two votes short of a majority in the lower house, so every bill will depend on parties outside the LDP-Ishin deal. That makes Takaichi's stimulus plans and her first diplomatic tests less certain than Tuesday's vote will suggest.

Coalition deal puts Takaichi on course for premiership

Sanae Takaichi and Hirofumi Yoshimura signed the coalition agreement in front of reporters at 6pm local time (09:00 GMT) on Monday 20 October 2025. Yoshimura co-leads the Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin.

The deal clears the way for Takaichi, 64, to win Tuesday's parliamentary vote and replace Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 68. Yoshimura had announced earlier that his party was ready to back a Takaichi premiership, giving the LDP the support it needed to stay in power. "I told Takaichi that we should move forward together," he said.

Takaichi, a China hawk from the LDP's right wing, became party leader earlier in October 2025. She lost the leadership run-off to Ishiba a year earlier.

Komeito forced the scramble. The Buddhist-backed party ended a 26-year alliance with the LDP days after Takaichi became leader, saying the LDP had failed to tighten funding rules after a slush fund scandal and that her positions unsettled it.

A minority government still needs opposition votes

One procedural quirk helps. If the prime ministerial vote goes to a second-round runoff, Takaichi would only need more votes than the other candidate, not an outright majority.

The deal followed the failure of the country's top three opposition parties to unite behind a single candidate.

Ishiba took office in 2024 after Fumio Kishida stepped down. He resigned on 7 September 2025, after the coalition lost its majorities in both houses amid voter anger over rising living costs. The July parliamentary election defeat left Japan in the three-month political vacuum that Monday's deal is meant to end.

First female premier, but not a unifying symbol

Takaichi, an admirer of former UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher, would become Japan's first female prime minister.

"The prospect of a first female prime minister doesn't make me happy," sociologist Chizuko Ueno posted on X, saying Takaichi's leadership "doesn't mean Japanese politics becomes kinder to women". Chiyako Sato, a political commentator and senior writer for the Mainichi newspaper, said Takaichi's policies were "extremely hawkish and I doubt she would consider policies to recognize diversity".

She supports the imperial family's male-only succession, opposes same-sex marriage and opposes a revision to the civil law that would let married couples keep separate surnames, so women are not pressured into abandoning theirs.

Diplomatic and economic tests await

Talks with U.S. President Donald Trump and regional summits are due within days of the vote.

She has criticised the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, and Kazutaka Maeda, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute, said her support for expansionary fiscal policy and her caution on rate rises "could draw scrutiny from financial markets".

She inherits a trade file Ishiba closed in his final days. Japan pledged $550 billion of investments in return for lower U.S. tariffs.

At home, Takaichi needs to tackle rising prices and produce stimulus measures to appease a frustrated public. Concern over the political uncertainty drove a sell-off in the yen and in government bonds. The yield on the 30-year bond hit a record high, the Asahi Shimbun reported.

What happens next

Parliament votes on Tuesday 21 October 2025. If Takaichi wins, she takes office immediately.

The coalition will need other parties to pass legislation. The Ishin agreement covers joint policy goals, not a guaranteed voting bloc.