China's September 2026 exports rose 36.3%, beating forecasts

Exports beat forecasts

Imports rose 31.0% in September 2026 from a year earlier, compared with 28.2% in August and a forecast of 24.5%, customs data reported by Brecorder showed. September's export growth was the fastest since February 2026, when exports rose 39.6%. The trade surplus reached $938.11 billion in the first nine months of 2026.

The first-nine-month surplus put China on course to pass $1 trillion sooner than it did in 2025, unless exports slow sharply in the fourth quarter, Brecorder reported. China's full-year 2025 surplus was $1.19 trillion, the largest ever, Fortune reported. Exports rose 5.5% in 2025 and accounted for a third of economic growth, the highest share since 1997.

Goods exports have defied pressure from Western countries seeking more balanced trade for a second year, keeping factories running and shoring up growth against subdued domestic demand and investment, Brecorder reported.

Domestic demand stays weak

Imports were virtually flat in 2025, reflecting weak domestic demand and Beijing's push to become more self-sufficient, Fortune reported. Retail sales in December 2025 rose just 0.9%, down from 2.9% in October 2025 and 6.4% in May 2025. Fixed-asset investment fell 15% in December 2025 after rising 15.7% in February 2025, the first annual decline in data going back almost three decades.

Property investment fell 17.2% in 2025, and about 80 million unsold or vacant homes continued to weigh on sales, prices, starts and completions, Fortune reported. An estimated 85% of real-estate price gains had been wiped out since 2021, leaving households to hoard money instead of spending it. GDP grew 5% in 2025, matching the government's target, but slowed to 4.5% in the fourth quarter from 4.8% in the third. Fitch Ratings expects growth to cool to 4.1% in 2026 from 5% in 2025.

Prices and the export model

Fortune reported in February 2026 that producer prices were then in negative territory. An economy-wide price gauge showed China had suffered deflation for three straight years, the longest streak since its transition to a market economy in the late 1970s. Overcapacity and support for manufacturers over consumers had stoked excess supply that dragged down prices.

By September 2026, separate data reported by Brecorder showed factory-gate prices rose at their fastest pace in more than four years, as pricier oil and commodities lifted costs.

What happens next

A deal with the European Union to limit Chinese exports of hybrid vehicles to the bloc, announced earlier this month, is likely to weigh on China's auto trade over time, Brecorder reported. With trade measures likely to be laid out in December, exporters may drive up shipments to beat the deadline.

President Xi Jinping's September 2026 summit with US President Donald Trump in Washington secured an extension to their tariff truce and an agreement to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods from each side. Analysts expect demand for Chinese-made technology products, including semiconductors, to hold up while the global build-out of AI infrastructure continues, Brecorder reported.