Sodium-ion battery supply agreements exceed 70 GWh, Wood Mackenzie says

The analysis covers China, the United States, Germany and India. It identifies sodium-ion as the most promising emerging alternative to lithium-based technologies for stationary energy storage. Wood Mackenzie expects module and system-level parity with lithium iron phosphate only after 2030.

Wood Mackenzie puts the global average sodium-ion cost at $229/kWh, against about $200/kWh for LFP. It still expects sodium-ion to deliver a 21% lower total cost of ownership over a 20-year project lifetime. The gain comes mainly from avoiding capacity expansion cycles and from lower operating costs, the firm said. The economics remain relatively stable across storage durations of two to four hours.

The study lists raw material supply security, service life and a wider operating temperature range as technical advantages. The temperature range could suit cold climates, where lithium-ion batteries may need extra thermal management. Supply agreements are already in place in China, the United States and Europe, while India remains in early commercial validation.

Policy support

China reintroduced a consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries in July 2026 and exempted sodium-ion until the end of 2028. LFP batteries became subject to a 2% levy in September 2026, rising to 4% in September 2027. In the United States, tariffs of about 58% on energy storage cells imported from China sit alongside Section 45X production credits. India is supporting domestic manufacturing with a $1.25 billion incentive programme and tariff exemptions for some manufacturing equipment.

In Europe, carbon footprint declaration requirements under the EU Battery Regulation could favour technologies with supply chains less dependent on certain critical raw materials, the analysis said.

Manufacturing plans

BYD plans 30 GWh of sodium-ion manufacturing capacity. CATL aims to ship more than 1 GWh by the end of 2026. Planned capacity currently exceeds demand, though the supply agreements point to gradual adoption. For 2026 to 2035, Wood Mackenzie estimates a learning rate of 18% to 20% in China, reflecting the maturity of its industrial supply chain.

The lithium-ion benchmark

BloombergNEF's annual price survey found that average lithium-ion pack prices fell 8% to $108/kWh in 2025, 93% below 2010 in real terms. The headline figures are volume-weighted averages. China averaged $84/kWh after a 13% drop. Pack prices in North America and Europe were 44% and 56% higher than in China.

LFP packs averaged $81/kWh across all segments, while nickel manganese cobalt packs were at $128/kWh. Stationary storage packs fell to $70/kWh, 45% lower than in 2024, the steepest decline of any segment and the first year stationary storage was the lowest-priced segment. EV packs averaged $99/kWh, below $100 for the second year running, and cell-only EV prices averaged $79/kWh.

"Cut-throat competition is making batteries cheaper every year," said Evelina Stoikou, head of BloombergNEF's battery technology team and lead author of the report. She said record-low prices create an opportunity to lower EV costs and speed up grid-scale storage deployment.

Those BloombergNEF figures are pack prices. Wood Mackenzie's sodium-ion and LFP comparison is a separate cost estimate.

BloombergNEF's levelized cost of electricity report, published in February 2026, put the global benchmark cost for a four-hour battery project at $78/MWh in 2025, down 27% year on year and a record low since the firm began tracking in 2009. That is an LCOE benchmark, not a pack price.

"Cheaper costs due to manufacturing overcapacity from the electric vehicle market and better system designs are transforming the economics for large energy storage projects," said Amar Vasdev, lead author of the report and a senior energy economics associate at BloombergNEF.

System-level sodium-ion costs

A study reported by pv magazine on 13 October put system-level sodium-ion costs at about €120/kWh of capacity in 2025. Applied learning rates point to €28.5 to €51.9/kWh of capacity by 2050. The study said sodium-ion is already close to cost parity with lithium-ion and can be produced on existing lithium-ion lines.

What happens next

Wood Mackenzie expects the 2030-2035 period to be decisive for sodium-ion to achieve economic competitiveness. For storage projects now under development, LFP remains the most commercially mature option for two- to four-hour durations, the analysis found.