Aluminum Association of Canada says US midterms raise pressure for tariff rollback

Simard's read on the midterms

Simard said the election sent a clear message that American voters are frustrated with the economic impact of US trade policy. He said the results could increase pressure on Washington to roll back the tariffs and create new momentum for an agreement with Canada.

"I'm certainly far more optimistic than I've ever been, because the signal is overwhelmingly clearer than I thought it would be," he said.

For Canadian producers the stake is direction, not survival: whether their metal returns to its biggest market or the shift to Europe becomes permanent. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said on Wednesday morning he had been "doing cartwheels down the street" and called the result "a victory for Canada".

Why the 50 per cent duty matters

Canada produces roughly 3.3 million tonnes of aluminium a year and exports about 90 per cent of that output, according to Simard. Most of those shipments historically went to the United States. The 50 per cent tariff pushed producers to redirect them to Europe.

Simard said Rio Tinto, Alcoa and Aluminerie Alouette initially kept filling American orders before switching. That let the industry hold production without layoffs or output cuts, he said. The damage is uneven across Canadian industry: the BBC reported that a RYAM paper mill in Témiscaming, Quebec, sat idle with most of its 360 employees out of work.

How the tariff ladder was built

The first Trump administration imposed a 10 per cent tariff on aluminium imports in 2018; Canada was initially exempt, then faced the duty from June 2018 until May 2019, when the exemption was restored.

The current round is steeper. The US imposed 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian aluminium in March 2025 and doubled them to 50 per cent on 4 June 2025. After trade talks collapsed in August, the administration added a 50 per cent tariff on $20bn worth of Canadian goods, from dairy to furniture. Canada retaliated with its own 50 per cent "dollar-for-dollar" tariffs, and most provinces banned the sale of US alcohol.

The political check

US-Canada Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said on Wednesday the midterm results will not change anything in the short term. Andreas Schotter of Western University's Ivey Business School said Canadian companies should not expect a dramatic shift: "Even on the Democratic side, there's a strong 'America First' notion," he said.

Congress may not be the lever it appears. Trump's levies have been largely enacted through executive orders without congressional approval, and he told Fox News on Tuesday night he would use his veto against bills he does not like.

What happens next

Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Tuesday evening that US negotiators "are asking less and they're offering more" in recent discussions, and that the two countries "will now be working in the coming weeks to deliver that outcome". Trump, speaking in Iowa on Sunday, said: "We have the concept of a very good deal with Canada".

No date is attached to any of it. LeBlanc's office said the trade minister has no current plans to visit Washington, and no new visit has been publicly confirmed for chief negotiator Janice Charette. Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association, said he had seen no term sheet exchange.