OPEC crude output rises 930,000 bpd in October to 88% of February level, survey shows

Saudi Arabia led the October recovery in Persian Gulf supplies, the Bloomberg survey found. The gain came after the Iran war began on 28 February and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, throttling Gulf exports. Shipping through the strait has picked up since a 17 June memorandum on ending the war, and Gulf flows had largely recovered by October.

Output recovers from war lows

OPEC+ raised output targets for much of 2026, but most of those increases stayed on paper because of the Middle East conflict, Reuters reported. OPEC output was 19.43 million bpd in June, rebounding from its lowest level in more than two decades. The survey's 22.8 million bpd figure covers OPEC members only, a group that no longer includes the UAE, which left in May. It is not the same as the output of the seven OPEC+ countries that set quotas, a group that includes non-OPEC producers Russia, Kazakhstan and Oman.

Gulf export flows have also recovered. JPMorgan said Middle East crude exports reached about 17.5 million bpd, roughly 98% of pre-war levels, Financial Express reported. Kpler put Gulf crude exports at a minimum of 16.5 million bpd in September. The firm said about 40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, up from 17% before the war, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE use pipelines more.

OPEC+ holds November targets

The seven core OPEC+ members kept their November production targets unchanged at a meeting on 4 October, Reuters reported. The group covers Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. Those seven pumped 25 million bpd in August, up 630,000 bpd from July but about 5 million bpd below February, OPEC data shows.

About 2 million bpd of cuts remain in place for most members. "Despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "Consequently, the oil market remains tight."

A separate OPEC+ ministerial group, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, met on 4 October to review the market. It does not set policy.

Prices stay high as shipping costs bite

Brent has traded above $100 a barrel, up from about $73 before the war began in late February, Reuters reported. Attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz and the cost of moving oil out of the Gulf are keeping prices high. Shipbrokers cited by The Wall Street Journal estimate the shuttle runs used to move crude out of the Gulf add $15 to $20 a barrel before insurance, Financial Express reported. UK Maritime Trade Operations has reported seven strikes on vessels around the strait since 28 September.

2027 quotas await capacity review

The war has delayed the capacity review needed to set 2027 output quotas, industry sources told Reuters. Changes to output policy are unlikely before 2027, those sources said. The group needs the review's result to decide how to distribute any increases.