Boeing says 737 MAX output will not stabilise at 47 a month until 2027

Boeing had expected to stabilise at 47 aircraft a month before the end of 2026. The stock fell more than 10% after the earnings release. The next step is 52 a month, which Boeing had targeted for early 2027. The Air Current reports that increase has been postponed into the second half of 2027, and Ortberg said it is now uncertain when Boeing will reach 52.

The shortfall means fewer MAX aircraft reach airlines this year than planned. The North Line in Everett, meant to add five aircraft a month alongside Renton's 47-a-month target, cannot deliver until the FAA issues production certification for it.

Boeing frames the increase as a staged recovery: 42 to 47, then 52. Simple Flying reported the 52 rate would return the programme to a level it reached before the MAX grounding. Boeing has said the extra aircraft will come from the new Everett line rather than from pushing Renton harder, with Renton being stabilised at 47.

Wings are the pacing item

Wing supply is the reason. Ortberg said output is improving, but that Boeing has not shown it can hold 47 a month: "It is taking us longer than we had expected to demonstrate performance at rate 47."

He was blunter about the fixes Boeing tried. "Some of those flow enablers just flat out did not yield the flow savings," he said, and the company is now adding capacity where they fell short. "We're not yet to where I can say we're stably producing wings to support the 47-a-month rate," Ortberg added. He was reiterating comments he made at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference in September.

Boeing was producing 42 a month in the first quarter of 2026. It said then that it had FAA go-ahead to raise the rate, and by May Ortberg said it had passed the required review and was moving toward 47. The company has said the step up involves stabilising factories, suppliers and quality metrics at the higher rate.

Deliveries average about 41 a month

Boeing delivered 367 737s in the first nine months of 2026, including 124 in the third quarter. That is about 41 deliveries a month. Deliveries are not the same as production, but the average is below the 47-a-month production target.

Leeham News reported that the FAA capped 737 output at 38 a month after the January 2024 door plug blow-out on an Alaska Airlines MAX 9. Boeing received approval to move past that cap in October 2025, about 20 months after it was imposed.

Everett and the MAX 10

The North Line opened in July and is intended mainly for the 737 MAX 10; Aviacionline reported it started with MAX 8s and MAX 9s. Deliveries from Everett are expected early next year. Boeing's second-quarter filing said low-rate production began there in July 2026 and that the line needs FAA production certification first.

The FAA certified the MAX 10 last week, issuing a certificate on Tuesday, the Epoch Times reported. "The FAA's decision follows a thorough review of the aircraft's design and safety requirements," FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said. "Completing the certification program clears the path for us to deliver a Boeing airplane that will set a new standard in commercial aviation," Stephanie Pope, chief executive of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said.

Boeing said certification allows full use of the Everett line, which is meant to add five aircraft a month. The MAX 10 seats up to 230 passengers and is 43.8 metres long. Boeing says more than 30 customers have ordered 1,555 of them, more than 30% of its current 737 MAX order book; Aviacionline puts firm orders at close to 1,500.

The first MAX 10 rolled off the North Line on 26 October, Ortberg said, the first 737 built outside Renton since 1970.

What happens next

Boeing's longer-term target is 63 MAX jets a month, with rates in the 70s under study. MAX 10 deliveries are expected in the coming months. Airlines must finish their own operational preparations first.