Poland's GDP growth accelerated to 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2026

Poland's economy picked up speed. In its flash estimate, the Central Statistical Office put GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 at 3.8 percent year on year, after 3.5 percent in the first quarter. Quarter on quarter, growth came in at 0.9 percent, against 0.6 percent three months earlier.

Finance Minister Andrzej Domański commented on the figures on X: "The Polish economy is growing. And faster and faster!" He said the government had "unlocked investment, European funds and financing for local governments," adding that "in times of global uncertainty, Poland chooses development."

The reading matched market expectations. Economists surveyed by PAP Biznes had forecast growth of 3.8 percent year on year, so Wednesday's estimate surprised no one, either way. The CSO will publish full second-quarter GDP data on 31 August.

By comparison, the European Commission's spring forecast assumes Polish GDP growth of 3.5 percent in 2026 and 2.8 percent in 2027. Brussels kept both figures, while raising its inflation and deficit forecasts. That pairing, faster growth next to mounting price pressure, is the main theme of Poland's economic debate right now.

Growth above 3.5 percent is holding up as the whole Union heads for a slowdown. The Commission cut its 2026 growth forecast for the EU from 1.4 to 1.1 percent, pointing to the energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Poland is weathering that better than the core of the euro area. Still, as a World Bank report shows, part of the investment impulse comes from projects tied to artificial intelligence and digitalisation, not from a broad revival across every sector.

The reading landed exactly on the expectations of economists surveyed by PAP Biznes, who had also forecast growth of 3.8 percent. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański wrote on social media that "the Polish economy is growing. And faster and faster," pointing out that the government had managed to "unlock investment, European funds and financing for local governments." In times of global uncertainty, he added, Poland chooses development.

The Central Statistical Office will publish full data on the structure of growth on 31 August. Those figures will show how much of the pace comes from consumption and how much from gross fixed capital formation, including infrastructure and digital projects. Whether the acceleration lasts depends above all on whether investment is rising, or only current spending.

The external backdrop remains difficult. The European Commission forecasts growth of 1.1 percent for the whole Union in 2026 and only 2.8 percent for Poland the following year. Poland is growing more than three times faster than the community average, though part of that edge reflects a stronger rebound from the low investment base of earlier years.