Global shipbuilding orderbook at record 226m CGT, Clarksons says

Record orderbook, thinner capacity cushion

Clarksons Research put the global orderbook at a record 226m compensated gross tonnes (CGT) as of 26 October, above the previous record of 225m CGT set in September 2008. The backlog is worth about $700bn. Managing director Stephen Gordon attributed the boom to high charter earnings, supply chain disruption from geopolitical issues, energy security and fleet renewal. Clarksons tracks about 300 shipyard expansion projects worldwide, 75% in China, and puts China's share of the orderbook at 68%, up from 34% in 2008.

Danish Ship Finance's Shipping Market Review, reported by Splash247, found yard capacity has grown just 30% since 2020, while Clarksons puts order volume at three times its 2020 level. The review said order cover rose from 1.4 years in 2020 to 3.7 years, and the backlog equals 19% of the existing world fleet, up from 7% six years ago.

Shipowners waiting on new tonnage face later deliveries and possible pressure on older vessel values, Danish Ship Finance warned. Chinese yards must lift output to record levels to meet 2028 schedules, and BIMCO says the expansion needed could leave them underused if contracting weakens.

The 2028 delivery bottleneck

Danish Ship Finance found the highest-performing yards are booked at 164% of available capacity for 2028. About 78% of contracted tonnage arrives in its scheduled year, roughly one-sixth slips into later years and around 5% is cancelled. The financier estimates 10m to 11m CGT of scheduled deliveries could slip annually from 2027 and 2028, pushing the 2028 workload to 107% of available capacity.

BIMCO data show combined deliveries from China, South Korea and Japan peaked at 40.1m CGT in 2025. Scheduled deliveries rise to 55.9m CGT in 2027 and 60m CGT in 2028, a 50% increase in three years. Chinese yards alone face the steepest climb. They are scheduled to deliver a record 44m CGT in 2028, nearly twice the 22.7m CGT delivered in 2025.

Danish Ship Finance also warns about older tonnage. In the VLCC, suezmax, capesize and large gas carrier segments, scrapping every vessel older than 20 years would not offset the incoming orderbook.

China's share of the backlog

BIMCO, using a different methodology, put the global orderbook at 203.2m CGT on 1 September 2026, up 13% from 180m CGT a year earlier. That sits below May's 210.4m CGT peak but above the 195.4m CGT record from 2008. The two datasets differ in scope and timing, so their totals and China shares are not directly comparable.

Chinese yards won 74% of CGT contracted in the past year and hold 64% of the global orderbook on BIMCO's measure, against 19% for South Korea and 6% for Japan. Clarksons' 68% figure is measured at a different date and from a different dataset. They hold more than 72% of the orderbook in each of six main cargo ship sectors and 81% of the containership orderbook. Container ships drive the growth. They account for 30% of CGT on order and 68% of the past year's growth.

On 2021-2025 peak output, Chinese yards have 4.2 years of order cover, against 1.9 years for South Korea and 1.7 years for Japan. Measured against 2021-2030 planned output, coverage falls to 2.1 years for China and 1.6 years for both South Korea and Japan.

A different cycle from 2008

The mix is different too. Clarksons says the orderbook equals about 25% of the existing fleet in gross tonnage, against 53% in 2008. Danish Ship Finance's 19% backlog-to-fleet ratio is a separate measure, so the two are not directly comparable. Container ship and liquefied gas carrier tonnage under construction has doubled and tripled respectively. Bulk carriers fell from 31% to 17% of the orderbook, and oil tankers from 25% to 21%.

The last boom ended badly. BIMCO noted that global new-vessel deliveries reached 54.4m CGT in 2010 and 2011, then fell to a low of 31.2m CGT in 2020. Danish Ship Finance said shipyards have contracted more tonnage than they delivered every year since 2021. Output from active yards rose 69% over the period, and production is running at 86% of capacity.

What happens next

Danish Ship Finance said scheduled production in 2027 and 2028 would occupy between 84% and 89% of global yard capacity before delayed vessels from previous years are considered. BIMCO's Niels Rasmussen said Chinese yards must raise annual output to new record highs to deliver. "The capacity expansion needed to achieve this could increase the risk of underutilisation if contracting weakens in the future," he said.