Maersk raises 2026 profit forecast on higher freight rates

Maersk now expects underlying EBITDA of US$14.0-14.5 billion, up from a previous forecast of US$10.5-12.5 billion, and underlying EBIT of US$8.0-8.5 billion, up from US$4.5-6.5 billion, the company said. The revised outlook assumes global container market volume growth of around 4% in 2026. Maersk also guided to free cash flow of US$3.0 billion and continues a US$1.0 billion buyback.

Group revenue rose 27% year on year to US$18.1 billion. EBITDA climbed from US$2.7 billion to US$4.7 billion and EBIT from US$1.3 billion to US$3.3 billion, an 18.1% margin. The Ocean division carried most of the increase, with EBIT of US$2.6 billion against US$567 million a year earlier. Vessel utilisation held at 96%. Global container demand grew 2% to 4% in the quarter, and import growth weakened in Europe and the Middle East.

Average spot freight rates on the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index rose 46% from the previous quarter. Congestion added to the squeeze. Average global port waiting times reached 16.6 hours, the highest since January 2023, after typhoons in Asia. Logistics & Services revenue rose 13%, terminal volumes rose 2.6% and terminal utilisation slipped to 85% from 90%. APM Terminals began construction of the Laldia terminal in Chattogram, Bangladesh, adding 900,000 TEU of annual capacity, and started operations at Suape in Brazil with up to 400,000 TEU.

The company said the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and network congestion increased bunker, container handling and operating costs.

2027 supply warning

BIMCO expects fleet capacity to grow about 9% in 2027, while effective supply growth will be roughly 5% to 6%, against demand growth of 0.5% to 2.5% with Hormuz closed and 2.5% to 4.5% if transit normalises. The global containership fleet passed 34 million TEU. More than 14 million TEU is on order, about 42% of the existing fleet. BIMCO expects capacity to grow 4.6% in 2026. Recycling should total only around 140,000 TEU, while some 1.6 million TEU sits on vessels more than 25 years old.

"Disruptions and strong growth in head-haul trades continue to support the container shipping market in 2026, but accelerating fleet growth could weaken the supply/demand balance in 2027," said Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst. Higher energy prices could also weigh on global growth.

Volumes still hold for now. Global container volumes rose 5.1% year on year in the first seven months of 2026, with head-haul and regional volumes up 6.3% and back-haul flat.

Cape of Good Hope diversions absorb capacity by extending voyage distances. Disruption in the Persian Gulf has kept some ships out of the wider market.

Suez return adds effective capacity

Routing is the second lever, and it moves faster than shipyard deliveries. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd's Gemini Cooperation expects to return nearly all services to Suez routings in the first quarter of 2027. FreightWaves reported the partners will also add an Asia-Mediterranean service through Suez in November, with a first sailing from Shanghai on 22 November.

Analyst Lars Jensen estimated Suez routing at 30% to 35% of normal.

Shorter voyages let the same fleet move more cargo. BIMCO estimates gradual normalisation of Suez routings in 2027 could cut ship demand growth by around five percentage points. A full recovery would leave capacity demand about 10% below what Cape diversions require. COSCO SHIPPING Lines has resumed passages with large containerships, including the 24,188-TEU OOCL Portugal.

Deployed capacity is already at records. Sea-Intelligence data show Asia-Northern Europe weekly capacity above 350,000 TEU and Asia-Mediterranean above 260,000 TEU in October, both above the same period of 2025. Delays at Asian ports in the third quarter pushed some scheduled departures into the final months of the year, the consultancy found. After China's Golden Week, carriers usually trim capacity; this year they did not.

Hapag-Lloyd chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen said the phased approach had avoided major problems so far, and that workloads at European and Mediterranean hubs were manageable.

What happens next

Gemini's target depends on conditions not changing, Habben Jansen said.

BIMCO's two 2027 scenarios turn on the Strait of Hormuz. "Unless Strait of Hormuz transit conditions normalise, continued oil supply constraints and higher oil prices could weaken global economic growth and container volume growth in 2027," Rasmussen said.

Maersk has ordered 26 dual-fuel vessels of 18,600 TEU each for delivery in 2029 and 2030.