NBP leaves reference rate at 3.75% despite higher 2027 inflation forecast

NBP holds at 3.75% as inflation falls

The deposit rate stays at 3.25% and the lombard rate at 4.25%. Households and businesses get no immediate relief on borrowing costs. The hold does not guarantee cheaper loans in the near term. The sharper signal sits in the bank's own numbers: headline inflation is falling now, while the November projection pushed the 2027 path higher.

October's reading is at the upper edge of the NBP's 2.5% target. The target has a tolerance band of one percentage point either side. Most economists expected the council to leave borrowing costs unchanged at its November meeting. The maximum statutory interest rate on consumer loans remains 14.50% a year.

A supply shock, not broad pressure

Governor Adam Glapiński said almost all of the rise in inflation to date came from higher fuel prices. He spoke at his October press conference. Energy accounted for 60% of inflation in September. Pass-through from energy to other prices stayed limited. Core inflation excluding food and energy has risen only modestly since the start of the year. It probably edged down slightly in September. He saw no signs of second-round effects.

That distinction drives the policy call. A supply shock lifts headline inflation and fades on its own. Broader pressure does not.

He still listed risks that could broaden the price pressure. They include solid consumer demand and an improving external environment, including Germany. They also include rising global agricultural commodity prices, expansionary fiscal policy and strong producer prices. He also noted that cuts to fuel excise duty and VAT are temporary. They are currently expected to stay in place until the end of 2026.

The written statement offered little new.

The MPC repeated the final two paragraphs unchanged. It kept the same list of risks: fiscal policy, regulated energy prices, the economic outlook and wage growth. Wage growth in the corporate sector is running at around 6% year on year. ING's reading of the decision put GDP growth at 3.4% year on year in the third quarter. That was down from 4.1% in the second.

Forecast upgraded, market had priced November

The November projection, at a 50% probability, put CPI inflation at around 3.2% in 2026, 4.2% in 2027 and 2.9% in 2028. The July projection had 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.2% for the same years. Every year of the path moved up. 2027 had the largest increase.

GDP growth was projected at around 3.7% in 2026, 2.9% in 2027 and 2.8% in 2028. The July figures were 3.7%, 2.8% and 3.0%.

The projection's cut-off date in mid-October caught inflation near its peak, before the October decline. Markets had gone further than the bank on rates. The yield curve at some point priced 125 basis points of tightening and a first hike as early as November, according to ING. Glapiński said in October that he did not currently see a need for a hike at the November meeting. He did not rule one out entirely. ING said it did not share the market's view on the scale of tightening.

Six holds and a March cut

September was the sixth consecutive meeting in 2026 without a rate change. The reference rate has stayed at 3.75% since a 25 basis point cut in March. By the September hold, consumer prices were rising 3.4% year on year in August. Second-quarter GDP growth had been revised to 3.9%.

Inflation stood at 3.1% year on year in March, up from 2.1% in February, according to the flash estimate. The council had cut rates six times in 2025 by a combined 175 basis points, Polskie Radio reported in April. The April hold left the lombard rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3.25%. June also kept the main rate at 3.75%.

What comes next

ING expects two 25 basis point hikes in the first quarter of 2027. That would take the reference rate from 3.75% to 4.25%. It expects inflation to exceed 3.5% over the next two to three quarters. A prolonged energy shock tied to the Middle East conflict is the main risk. Temporary fuel-price relief under Poland's CPN programme could bring inflation closer to 3.5%. It would not remove the risk of broader cost increases. Futures prices point to possibly higher regulated gas and electricity tariffs from early 2027.

ING economists said a November increase remained possible. They said policymakers may wait for further data and the next inflation projection. ING's forecast is not a central bank commitment.