Sensor Tower estimates GTA 6 digital console pre-orders at $751 million

Rockstar will open pre-loading on 10 November, nine days before the 19 November launch, and the download needs up to 212 GB, according to its Newswire post. The game is due on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S; Rockstar has not announced a PC version.

Pre-orders near GTA 5's launch-day sales

Sensor Tower's estimate covers digital console pre-orders and is net of returns. It leaves GTA 6 about $50 million short of the $800 million GTA 5 made on its first day in September 2013, according to Take-Two, although the GTA 5 figure includes pre-orders realised at launch and the GTA 6 number is an estimate.

Sensor Tower puts PS5 at about 5.74 million digital pre-orders worth $559 million and Xbox Series X|S at roughly 1.97 million copies and $192 million, a 74% to 26% split. PlayStation reportedly holds around 70% of the console market. Xbox chief strategy officer Matthew Ball said in September that Xbox pre-orders were matching its share of the market and breaking records for Xbox.

Edition mix and price

The Standard Edition costs $79.99 and the Ultimate Edition $99.99. Dividing Sensor Tower's $751 million estimate by 7.71 million units gives an average of about $97 per pre-order, closer to the Ultimate Edition than the Standard Edition. A large share of early buyers appear to be paying for the premium version, although regional pricing also affects the average. A Forbes report said Rockstar had previously reported that the $100 edition accounts for the majority of sales. GTA 5 launched at $60 in 2013. A $399.99 collector's set is also on sale; it does not include a copy of the game.

Start times and retailer copies

Start times differ by platform and country. PS5 owners in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt can begin at midnight local time. Xbox Series X|S opens at 12am GMT, which is 4am in the UAE, 3am in Saudi Arabia and 2am in Egypt. Reports say code-in-box copies are expected at retailers from 12 November, a week before launch.

Marketing push

Rockstar has released 39 new screenshots showing Vice City streets, nightlife and protagonists Jason and Lucia. The map is reportedly twice the size of GTA 5's.

Rockstar will host "A Night in Vice City" on 18 November, when the Miami Heat play the Milwaukee Bucks as the Vice City Heat. The teams will use a custom court, and the Miami side will wear GTA-themed jerseys. The campaign also includes branding at the Miami Heat stadium, themed drinks in bars and a promotional blimp over Miami, according to reports. Rob Nelson, Rockstar's co-studio head, said the game eventually becomes something shared with its audience.

What happens next

Official sales figures will most likely arrive in Take-Two's next earnings report, when the estimates can be checked against the publisher's own numbers. Sensor Tower plans two more weekly updates before launch.