Trump says Strait of Hormuz is reopening as shipping traffic stays near standstill

Trump's claim and the shipping data

Trump told reporters the US position in the conflict was strong and negotiations with Iran were making progress, but he offered no details about the talks or a possible agreement, Khaama Press reported. He also claimed the strait was reopening and that oil trade was flowing at a higher rate than ever. The status of the waterway remains disputed, with shipping restrictions and military tensions continuing.

Shipping data does not show a reopened waterway. Only four commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, down from seven the day before and far below the 10-day average of 18, according to preliminary Kpler shipping data cited by Reuters. The strait normally carries about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas. Traffic has collapsed since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to IBTimes.

The IMF's PortWatch recorded four transits on Oct. 18, compared with a pre-war average of about 85 a day, IBTimes reported. The US Maritime Administration has warned that risks to commercial shipping remain high, citing possible missile, drone and unmanned surface vessel attacks, as well as boarding and diversion attempts, Outlook India reported.

Attacks reach a record

Attacks on commercial ships in and around the strait reached a record high in October. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy recorded 28 confirmed and reported attacks in October and 113 since the war began, IBTimes reported. The International Maritime Organization recorded 120 incidents in the strait and wider Middle East since the start of the conflict, IBTimes reported. Its tracker later showed 129 confirmed maritime incidents and 24 seafarer fatalities as of Thursday, according to Outlook India.

More than 30 very large crude carriers have been damaged in attacks, according to a Reuters review of IMO and MarineTraffic data. Eleven were hit in October alone. Together they make up about 3.5% of the global supertanker fleet.

Brent crude settled near $117 a barrel on Friday, up more than 3% on the day and about 17% higher than a month earlier, IBTimes reported. Brent first passed $100 in March, in the war's opening weeks, and peaked at $126.

Iran's two-day proposal

Iran has offered to reopen the strait within two days if Washington meets its conditions. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Nov. 2 that the proposal showed Tehran's willingness to resolve the crisis through dialogue and that implementing the plan in two days was possible if Iran's demands were met, according to Daily Sabah.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Nov. 1 that Qatari mediators had helped shorten Iran's earlier seven-day proposal to two days. Under the revised sequence, the US would take steps on the first day and shipping would resume on the second, Investing.com reported.

Iran's conditions include ending the war on all fronts, unfreezing Iranian assets abroad, lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports and ending the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. They also include recognition of a transit route agreed with Oman and a reduced US troop presence in the region.

Iran put a seven-day version to Washington through Qatar in September. Trump rejected it, Daily Sabah reported. Mohsen Rezaei, who heads Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the strait would remain closed until Washington addressed Tehran's demands.

Diplomacy and next steps

Iranian negotiators held a third consecutive day of talks with Qatari mediators on Sunday, a Reuters report cited by Investing.com said. An Iranian delegation was in Doha for consultations, with no direct US-Iran talks planned. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump had not decided whether to launch fresh strikes and that a diplomatic settlement remained possible.

Outlook India reported that Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi spoke to Araghchi on Thursday about practical arrangements to restore unhindered navigation, ensure maritime safety and secure international trade and energy supplies. Qatar's prime minister held a separate call with Araghchi. Neither announcement confirmed an agreement to reopen the strait.

Trump said negotiations were going fine and Iran wanted a deal, but Washington was not in a hurry, Investing.com reported. Araghchi said Tehran was reviewing the US response to its proposal and accused Washington of failing to show the sincerity needed for an agreement, Shipping Telegraph reported.