UN adaptation report puts COP31 finance gap at $305 billion a year

The numbers come from UNEP's Adaptation Gap Report, titled "Ready? Not.".

Developed countries provided between $28.2 billion and $31.7 billion in 2024. That is only a modest increase on the previous year. Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, did the division for the room. "For every dollar developing countries need to adapt, they receive just 10 cents," he said. Inger Andersen, UNEP's executive director, said the world "is not ready to adapt to current climatic conditions, never mind what overshoot of 1.5C will bring".

Adaptation money is the least abstract line in any climate budget. It pays for sea walls and levees, drought-resistant crops and homes built to survive storms.

Why the tripling pledge does not close the gap

There is a pledge on the table already. At COP30 in Brazil last year, countries called for efforts to triple adaptation finance by 2035.

Tripled, that money would reach $85 billion to $120 billion a year. That depends on how the COP30 decision is read. It covers 20 to 29 percent of the $305 billion bill. An earlier promise also slipped. At COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, rich countries said they would double adaptation finance from 2019 levels to $40 billion a year by 2025. Flows in 2024 fell short of that.

UNEP's 2025 edition put needs at up to $365 billion a year by 2035, against adaptation flows of $35 billion in 2024. The 2026 needs figure is lower. The ratio to flows is not.

The report said 2026 brought stark reminders. These ranged from extreme heat and wildfires in Europe to catastrophic glacial flooding in Nepal.

Africa's fight is about the agenda, not just the money

Money is only half the argument in Antalya. The other half is whether the summit can talk about it.

The African Group of Negotiators wants a dedicated agenda item under Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement. That clause obliges developed countries to provide financial resources. Nana Dr Antwi-Boasiako Amoah, who chairs the group, said no such item exists today. "There is no agenda item within the UNFCCC as we speak that provides space to discuss public financing," he told bird story agency. He expects wealthy governments to resist: "There is a likelihood that they will oppose the adoption of the agenda because of the inclusion of this agenda item".

Even keeping the item alive would count as a result. "Getting it maintained for a conversation for us is going to be a big success," Amoah said.

The backdrop is the COP29 deal in Baku in 2024. Countries agreed at least $300 billion a year in climate finance for developing nations by 2035. That sits inside a broader $1.3 trillion mobilisation target that includes private capital. The $300 billion goal allows public and private money. That is why terms of delivery remain contested. Developing countries pushed a climate finance work programme onto the conference agenda. Developed countries would rather focus on access to existing finance and a wider donor base, according to Carbon Brief's analysis of around 100 documents.

Donors are moving the other way

The pressure is arriving as donor budgets shrink. The United Kingdom recently cut its contribution to the Green Climate Fund by 50 percent.

The United States has left both the Loss and Damage Fund and the Green Climate Fund. The loss and damage fund was created in 2023. It has drawn only around $800 million in pledges.

Bangladesh's state minister for foreign affairs, Shama Obaed Islam, said on 2 November that Dhaka would press developed countries for grants rather than loans at COP31. "Although Bangladesh's contribution to global carbon emissions is almost negligible, we are ultimately among those suffering the consequences," she said.

Capital costs compound the problem. Renewable projects in developing countries can cost several times more to finance than similar projects in wealthier economies, according to Selwin Hart. He is the UN Special Adviser on Climate Action and Just Transition.

The investment picture is lopsided in a similar way. Emerging and developing economies outside China, home to nearly two-thirds of the global population, received only 18 percent of global clean energy investment in 2025.

What happens next in Antalya

Türkiye hosts and Australia leads the negotiations under a joint presidency arrangement. Murat Kurum, Türkiye's environment, urbanisation and climate change minister, is president-designate. Australia's climate and energy minister, Chris Bowen, is president of the negotiations.

The World Leaders' Summit is scheduled for 11 and 12 November. The Turkish presidency's action agenda rests on 10 priority areas and 6 global implementation targets, including raising the global electrification rate to 35 percent by 2035.

None of that is the money. The first test comes when the agenda is adopted, and the African Group's item either survives or does not.