Australia's October coking coal exports fall 10.8% month on month

The October figure interrupted a recovery in August and September. Exports for January to October reached 126.52 million tonnes, up 4.3% from a year earlier, according to BigMint data reported by GMK Center. Coking coal's share of Australia's total coal exports fell to 39% in October from 46% in September as thermal coal shipments grew.

Australia accounts for nearly half of global seaborne metallurgical coal exports. IEEFA says that dominance means disruptions in Australia can trigger price spikes across the market: benchmark premium Australian hard coking coal reached USD252.5 per tonne on 4 February 2026, an 18-month high, after January flooding in Queensland disrupted supply, and was up more than 50% from March 2025 lows.

China offsets India

China bought 3.28 million tonnes in October, more than double the 1.26 million tonnes sent to India. India's October volume fell 46.2% from September and was the lowest monthly figure in a year. Over the ten months, India took 27.94 million tonnes, down 14.6%, and its share of Australian exports fell to 22% from 27%.

China's ten-month total reached 18.65 million tonnes, 89% more than the 9.86 million tonnes a year earlier. Its share rose to 15% from 8%. Japan took 26.15 million tonnes, up 5.6%, while South Korea took 14.89 million tonnes, down 7.9%.

About 1.90 million tonnes, or 15.2% of October exports, had no identified destination, GMK Center said, leaving room for revisions to individual country figures. The report said the main trend of the year remained China taking a larger share and intensifying competition for other buyers.

India imports around 90% of its metallurgical coal and aims to reach 300 million tonnes a year of crude steel capacity by 2030, with 64% of capacity under development reliant on coal-based blast furnace technology, IEEFA said. "India is already one of Australia's most important export markets for metallurgical coal and its role is only set to grow," Stuart Bocking, chief executive of Coal Australia, told Australian Mining.

Why China is buying more

A mine accident in Shanxi prompted safety checks and suspensions, creating a supply shock in China. GMK Center reported earlier that China's coking coal shortage will continue until 2027. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts said the recovery of Chinese production will be gradual because of strict safety measures.

GMK Center said increased supplies from Mongolia, Australia and Russia will partly offset China's shortage but will not close the gap completely.