Cochilco cuts Chile's 2026 copper output forecast to 4.94 million tonnes

Cochilco, Chile's state copper commission, published the cut in its third-quarter copper report. The Rio Times reported that the 4.94 million tonne figure would be Chile's lowest annual output since 2003, based on industry data. In August, Cochilco had expected a fall of only 2.6% from 2025.

Output from January to September reached 3.63 million tonnes, 8.5% below the same period of 2025, according to Cochilco data cited by the Rio Times. Escondida, state producer Codelco and BHP's Spence mine together explain 77.3% of that drop. Escondida alone produced about 127,000 tonnes less than a year earlier.

Output was already falling

Cochilco and analysts point to lower ore grades, maintenance work and operating interruptions at big sites. Cochilco data show output peaked at about 5.83 million tonnes in 2018. Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, produced 797,500 tonnes between January and August, an 11.4% yearly decrease. BHP attributes the fall to lower feed grades at the mine's concentrators. The company expects 1 million to 1.1 million tonnes from the asset in the year from July 2026 to June 2027. Escondida produced 1.345 million tonnes in 2025, according to Cochilco.

A strike at Escondida was called off before it began. The supervisors' union had called a strike for 8 a.m. on 14 October after mediation failed, but members approved a revised 36-month contract that morning, the union said. The deal removed an immediate supply risk. The union said a clear majority accepted the package, which included improvements in fixed and variable compensation, existing benefits and new bonuses. The union said the vote concluded this year's regulated collective bargaining process.

Price forecast and market balance

Cochilco raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to US$6.18 a pound from US$5.95 in August. The last London Metal Exchange price it used was US$6.60 a pound. The commission projected a refined copper surplus of 144,000 tonnes in 2026, which the report said was only 0.5% of world demand, and 215,000 tonnes in 2027.

Chile's central bank said the economy grew 0.2% in September from a year earlier, while mining output fell 12.1%. Activity outside mining grew 2.0%, which kept the total positive. The Rio Times said Chile's economy leans heavily on copper, so weak output also drags on growth.

What happens next

Cochilco expects output to rise 3.0% to 5.08 million tonnes in 2027, which would restore about a third of this year's loss. In August it had expected 5.55 million tonnes. The Rio Times noted that the 2026 forecast needs fourth-quarter output of about 434,000 tonnes a month, 7.6% above the January-to-September average. The Rio Times also said it is not known whether Codelco can steady its mines fast enough to deliver the 2027 rebound.