WTM report forecasts record 1.57 billion international overnight arrivals in 2026

International visitor spending is expected to rise 6% to $1.8 trillion in 2026. Including domestic tourism, total spending should reach $7.8 trillion, up 9%, and total visitor nights should reach 24.2 billion. Tourism Economics, the Oxford Economics company that produced the report with WTM London, attributes the slower growth to the Iran conflict, higher jet fuel prices and living costs. Inflation accounts for a little over half of the spending increase, said Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics' managing director for EMEA.

Short-haul takes share as Middle East falls

The headline number hides a change in how people travel. Short-haul trips rose 3% globally in 2026 while inter-regional travel fell 3%. Europe recorded 5% arrivals growth, and Africa and Oceania each rose 8%. The Middle East went the other way, with overnight arrivals down 40%. Gulf aviation hubs accounted for 15% of global transit traffic in 2025. Shrinking capacity there added to fares and travel times for travellers moving between regions.

North America presents a different picture. Despite hosting FIFA World Cup matches, its international arrivals are forecast to end 2026 just 2% up and still 6% below 2019. The report cites rising costs and negative traveller sentiment towards the United States. Latin America posted 2% growth this year and is projected at 7% in 2027, against 4% for North America. Diverted demand is credited with the gains in Africa, Oceania and Europe.

Value-seeking travellers, not only luxury

Value for money now ranks higher when travellers pick a destination. One in six travellers chose their most recent international destination primarily for value in 2026, up from about one in 11 in 2025.

Interest in luxury stayed flat at 12%. The two are not exclusive: 56% of respondents said they wanted to save on some parts of a trip and splurge on others. Some 22% plan to travel at different times of year, motivated by better value.

Goodger said the shift is selective rather than a retreat from premium travel. Travellers still prioritise luxury experiences and treat themselves when they can, he said.

AI booking trust remains partial

Trust in AI booking is growing but remains partial. Some 36% of travellers said they would trust AI to complete a travel booking, while 58% would use it to search and compare prices and 53% to get recommendations. A quarter said they had used AI to plan a trip. The age gap is wide: 54% of 18 to 34 year olds would trust AI to book, against 18% of those aged 55 and over. Tourism Economics calls agentic booking mainstream and cites Google's launch of hotel booking in AI Mode in August 2026, with partners including Booking.com, Expedia, Hilton, Marriott and IHG.

Goodger said AI is doing a lot in the background but is not replacing humans in the industry. There is still space for human service, he said.

Outlook hinges on Iran conflict

The forecast improves if the disruption eases. Tourism Economics expects global international arrivals to grow 8% in 2027, with long-haul travel rebounding 11%. Middle East arrivals would recover 43% but remain below 2025 levels. The report puts international arrivals at 2.2 billion by 2032, from 1.57 billion in 2026. It expects outbound nights per person to rise 41% by then, against 13% for domestic nights. Europe is projected to add 226 million international arrivals a year between 2026 and 2032, about 4% annual growth.

The report warns that prolonged geopolitical tensions or new conflicts could slow the recovery.