Nine blockchain groups launch Quantum Alliance for crypto security standards

Nine organisations, one standard

The group is modelled on the Internet Engineering Task Force and intends to publish public standards for judging whether networks are ready for quantum attacks, rather than create another blockchain, news.bitcoin.com reported.

Named contributors include Quantus, Keystone, Abelian, Hacken, Postquant Labs, American Fortress, Intmax, Midnight Foundation and The Vault. The work spans wallet protection, blockchain upgrades, privacy systems and compatibility between networks, Analytics Insight reported. The coalition wants common security standards in place before powerful quantum computers can crack the signatures protecting wallets, news.bitcoin.com reported.

Six million coins already exposed

The alliance estimates that 6.04 million to 6.4 million BTC are already exposed through revealed public keys. Glassnode separately put 1.92 million BTC in structurally exposed addresses and another 4.12 million BTC at risk through wallet practices, about 6.04 million in total, or 30.2% of mined Bitcoin. An estimated 1.1 million BTC associated with Satoshi Nakamoto falls inside the broader discussion.

The exposure comes from how Bitcoin proves ownership: certain wallets reveal public keys that then stay permanently visible on the blockchain. Early pay-to-public-key outputs show the key directly, while several later formats hide it behind a hash until funds are spent. Neither estimate means anyone can move those coins today, because no quantum computer exists that can exploit the keys. Avoiding unnecessary address reuse reduces one form of exposure, Analytics Insight noted, but moving funds does not automatically provide quantum resistance because current Bitcoin signatures remain vulnerable in principle.

The Doom Clock and the split over timing

The alliance's Quantum Doom Clock points to March 2028 as an early possible window for a machine able to break existing protections. Its model puts the requirement at roughly 856,000 physical qubits, about 1.7 times Google's March 2026 estimate of fewer than 500,000 physical qubits under specified hardware assumptions. Other researchers expect the danger to emerge during the 2030s instead, Cryptonews.net reported.

Google's March 2026 analysis estimated that breaking 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography could require fewer than 1,200 logical qubits and 90 million Toffoli gates using one proposed circuit design, or fewer than 1,450 logical qubits and 70 million such gates using another. The March 2028 date is a projection from qubit growth trends, not evidence that a capable machine will exist by then. Behind those revisions sits hardware progress: Google said on 15 October that its Willow processor cut errors in magic states about 40-fold, with accepted states reaching 99.99% fidelity. Only about 8% of preparation attempts passed the checks, and Willow holds 105 physical qubits. Google cautioned that the method still needs validating at larger scales and has set no timeline for systems large enough for cryptographic attacks.

Migration is the hard part

Coinbase published its own assessment on 13 October and said replacing existing signature algorithms would be only one part of the transition. The exchange pointed to BIP-360 and P2TRv2 as possible technical approaches. It listed institutional custody systems, limited blockchain capacity, wallet compatibility and dormant addresses as complications. Coinbase says it safeguards approximately 15% of Bitcoin's supply.

Coins that "cannot or will not move" are, in Coinbase's words, "a separate governance and engineering problem." Owners need valid keys to shift holdings into upgraded wallets, and dormant addresses may not have them.

What is still unresolved

Estimates of exposed coins differ by methodology, from 6.04 million to 6.9 million BTC. The alliance aims to publish common tests, news.bitcoin.com reported.