Anglo American keeps 2026 copper guidance after 5% quarterly output fall

The fall from 183,500 tonnes a year earlier reflected record snowfall and related maintenance in Chile, together with lower-grade stockpile processing at Collahuasi, the company's production report said. For the first nine months of 2026, copper production was 519,000 tonnes, down 1% from 526,000 tonnes. Anglo cut Peru unit-cost guidance to 50 US cents per pound from 65 cents.

Merger awaits China approval

The Teck merger, announced in September 2025 and valued at US$54bn by BNamericas, would put more than 70% of the combined portfolio in copper. Shareholders of both companies have approved it, and regulators in South Korea, Canada and Chile have cleared it, the companies said. Antitrust approval in China is the last pending requirement, BNamericas reported. Completion is expected by March 2027, within the originally announced September 2026 to March 2027 window. Kalkine Media noted that Chinese reviews have sometimes extended beyond initial expectations for cross-border mining deals. On completion, Anglo American shareholders are to receive a special dividend of US$4.5bn, BNamericas reported.

BofA Securities upgraded Anglo American to buy, saying value has re-emerged after a pullback and the Teck deal would create a copper-focused company. It set a price objective of 4,700 pence per share, compared with 3,895 pence on 21 October. BofA called Chinese approval a major risk and said forced asset disposals would make completion more challenging. It estimates the combined shares would trade at less than 7 times 2027 and 2028 estimated enterprise value to EBITDA, versus 8 to 15 times for copper peers. Reuters reported that a multi-year offtake agreement could be enough to ease China's antitrust concerns.

Combined copper portfolio

BofA models near-term combined copper production of about 945,000 tonnes a year, above Anglo's standalone 2026 guidance of 700,000-760,000 tonnes. Collahuasi in Chile, 44% owned by Anglo, produces about 570,000 tonnes a year and is one of the world's largest copper mines. Adding Quebrada Blanca II, about 240,000 tonnes a year and 60% owned by Teck, plus operational synergies, could take the combined site to about 1 million tonnes a year, with Anglo Teck's equity share about 50%.

Those synergies are expected to add US$1.4bn annually to EBITDA by enabling an additional 175,000 tonnes a year of copper production, BNamericas reported. Anglo's copper segment generated US$4.0bn in underlying EBITDA in 2025.

Asset sales and leadership

Anglo is shedding non-core assets. BofA said coking coal and nickel sales are agreed, though nickel remains subject to antitrust approval, while the De Beers diamonds sale is ongoing and challenged by pricing. The Australian steelmaking coal sale to Dhilmar could deliver up to US$3.875bn and should complete by the first quarter of 2027, Anglo said.

The future executive team was named in July. Duncan Wanblad will be CEO of Anglo Teck and Jonathan Price deputy CEO when the merger completes. Sheila Murray, current chair of Teck's board, will chair the combined board, and each company will nominate 50% of directors.