Brussels raises Poland's inflation forecast to 3.6 percent, sees deficit at 6.5 percent of GDP

In its spring economic forecast, the European Commission kept Poland's GDP growth forecast at 3.5 percent in 2026 and 2.8 percent in 2027. Everything else went up.

The inflation forecast for Poland in 2026 was raised from 2.9 to 3.6 percent. For 2027, Brussels lowered it from 3.7 to 2.9 percent, assuming price growth will slow. The general government deficit is to reach 6.5 percent of GDP in 2026, against 6.3 percent estimated in the autumn, and to rise to 6.3 percent in 2027 from the previously expected 6.1 percent.

The reason is the same across the whole Community. The Commission noted that after GDP growth of 1.5 percent in 2025, the EU economy held a moderate pace and inflation fell until the end of February 2026. That is when the conflict in the Middle East broke out, at the turn of February and March. From that moment the outlook changed.

For the EU, the Commission cut its 2026 growth forecast from 1.4 to 1.1 percent and raised its inflation forecast from 2.1 to 3.1 percent. Price growth is to peak in 2026 and then fall to 2.4 percent in 2027, assuming a gradual decline in commodity prices. Even then they will remain around 20 percent higher than before the war between the US and Israel and Iran.

It is the same diagnosis the OECD set out in its September report: the price shock on the commodity market proved more persistent than previously assumed, and in some economies household stockpiles and savings are running out. The OECD added a second leg, however: in many G20 economies growth is being sustained by spending and production linked to artificial intelligence.

For Poland the setup is therefore doubly strained: relatively strong growth and digital investment on one side, rising inflation and a deficit above 6 percent of GDP on the other.

The forecast changed on one side only. The growth path for Poland was kept at 3.5 percent in 2026 and 2.8 percent the following year, while inflation this year was raised from 2.9 to 3.6 percent and in 2027 lowered from 3.7 to 2.9 percent. The general government deficit is to come in at 6.5 percent of GDP this year and 6.3 percent next year.

What is a problem for the whole community in Brussels is a boundary condition for Poland. The Commission estimates that inflation in the Union will reach 3.1 percent in 2026, and in the euro area will fall to 2.4 percent only in 2027. Europe's inflation peak therefore falls in the current year, not the next one. Geopolitical factors could yet undo that scenario: commodity prices are today around 20 percent higher than before the conflict in the Middle East broke out.

The Union entered the price shock from a position of moderate growth: in 2025 the community's economy grew by 1.5 percent. Every quarter with more expensive energy is therefore automatically a quarter of weaker consumption and worse prospects for public finances.