Counterpoint estimates India smartphone shipments fell 20% in Q3 2026

Two estimates of the same quarter

Omdia put the quarter at 35.8 million units, the lowest third-quarter total since 2016. Counterpoint's 20% decline is a smaller fall than Omdia's 26%.

Shipments of smartphones priced below Rs 20,000 fell 47% in the quarter, Counterpoint said, as higher model prices pushed devices into more expensive bands. TechArc said variants launched at Rs 1 lakh or above rose from five in the second quarter to 26 in the third, and that only seven models launched under Rs 10,000. India's smartphone market had already fallen 10% in the second quarter of 2026, according to Counterpoint, its steepest June-quarter decline in six years. Counterpoint forecasts a 13% fall in India shipments for the full year 2026.

Counterpoint said memory prices were the trigger. Its global second-quarter report said memory suppliers were prioritizing AI data center demand over consumer electronics, pushing up DRAM and NAND prices and forcing OEMs to raise prices on entry and mid-tier devices.

Counterpoint's Shubham Singh said the memory-led cost squeeze "compounded softer consumer demand". That weakened the traditional mass-market volume engine, particularly below Rs 15,000, he said. Omdia pointed to higher prices and cautious household spending, which cut replacement demand and pushed vendors into conservative inventory strategies. Omdia also said the later Diwali shifted a significant part of offline festive inventory build-up from September into October, and online-focused shipments weakened.

Samsung takes back the top spot

Samsung shipped 6.7 million units for about 19% of the market, Omdia said. That put it back in first place in India for the first time since the first quarter of 2024.

Counterpoint put Samsung at a 17% share, up from 13% in the third quarter of 2025, and said it was the only top-five brand to grow year on year. Omdia put the market at 35.8 million units. The Galaxy A07, A17 and A27 carried volumes, while the Galaxy S26 series, the new Z-series foldables and the Galaxy S26 FE supported the higher price tiers.

Bank cashback, exchange benefits and longer-tenure financing supported upgrades across price bands, Omdia said.

vivo's slide and the rest of the top five

vivo fell to second place with 6.4 million units, Omdia said. That was down 34% from 9.7 million a year earlier, the steepest decline among the top five vendors.

Omdia attributed the fall to repeated price increases that disrupted channel inventory planning, and to constrained supply of entry-level models. The Y11 5G and Y21 5G carried most of its volume, with the returning S-series, led by the S2, adding to the total. Oppo shipped 4.9 million units, down 24% from 6.5 million, as higher prices and cautious retailer stocking hit its core A-series, the research firm said. The Reno16 series supported its push into higher price points. Xiaomi shipped 4.7 million units, down 28% from 6.5 million, after rising component costs forced the vendor to make compromises on pricing and memory configuration.

Apple took fifth place with 3.9 million units, Omdia said, helped by retailers stocking ahead of expected price rises and by demand for the base iPhone 17 and iPhone 16. There is no base iPhone 18 this year. The iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max arrived late in the quarter, backed by bank cashback, exchange bonuses and no-cost EMI schemes.

Chinese brands lose seven points of share

Chinese brands held about 68% of India's smartphone market in the third quarter, according to Omdia. That was down from 75% a year earlier.

Sanyam Chaurasia, principal analyst at Omdia, said the Indian market is moving from online-led festive expansion to "more selective, channel-driven growth". That shift challenges the volume strategies vendors have relied on, he said. September, normally a key month for stocking ahead of online sales, was weak, he said. Fewer exclusive launches, a limited choice of affordable models and narrower promotional gaps between channels reduced the online channel's advantage. Samsung and Apple gained ground in the quarter through premium portfolios, established channel ties and structured upgrade programmes, Chaurasia said.

Counterpoint's Singh described a similar retreat. OEMs prioritised margin protection, portfolio rationalisation and leaner channel inventory over volume ahead of Diwali, he said.

What happens next

Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint, expects another round of price hikes in India after the festive season sale. Elevated component costs are likely to drive that, he said.

Omdia expects pricing pressure to persist through at least the first half of 2027. Pathak said the Indian market is likely to remain on a challenging footing entering 2027. Higher device prices extend replacement cycles and limit volume recovery, he said. He said OEMs are already restructuring portfolios, adding more 4G and lower-specification models and trading down specifications in some bands to hold price points. Chaurasia said vendors must move beyond incremental hardware improvements toward AI-led experiences. Omdia's User Innovation Readiness research found that nearly four in ten respondents in India said useful AI capabilities could make them willing to pay more for a smartphone.