GSMA: 6G will reach 2.4 billion connections by 2035, but 5G is not going anywhere

The first half of the 2030s will be a period of coexistence rather than replacement. Italy's CorCom cites a forecast from GSMA Intelligence: in 2030 there will be around 50 million 6G connections worldwide, roughly half a percent of all mobile subscriptions. A year later that should reach about 275 million. By the end of 2032 it should be close to 740 million. In 2033 6G will pass one billion and close the year at around 1.3 billion connections. After that: 1.9 billion in 2034 and 2.4 billion in 2035.

Analysts split the cycle into two phases. The years 2030 to 2032 are mainly individual deployments and ecosystem building. Only from 2033 is the technology expected to operate on a global scale. More importantly, the expansion of 6G does not mean the end of 5G: at the end of 2035 fifth-generation networks are still expected to account for about 60 percent of mobile connections, 6G for 23 percent, and LTE for 17 percent. Adoption will begin in East Asia, North America and Europe, with China driving the volumes.

Why the network has to change

The reason is not ambition but traffic. Mobile traffic is set to grow from 204 exabytes a month to 846 exabytes, or about 15 percent a year. CorCom stresses that 6G is to integrate AI functions and simultaneous sensing and communication (ISAC). That requires more spectrum and far greater automation of network management.

The research base is being built in parallel. As the Chinese portal IT之家 reports, Hubei Mobile and its partners will build a 6G industry test zone in the Optics Valley district of Wuhan. The partners include China Information and Communication Technologies Group, the Zhongguancun Panlian institute and the Huazhong University of Science and Technology. By 2027 three infrastructures are to be created there: the most comprehensive 6G test network in Chinese plans, an open research platform combining communication, sensing and computing, and a test platform for intelligent reconfigurable surfaces. 6G base stations are to cover around 3.3 square kilometres in Wuhan's future technology park.

The same report shows a wider picture of China's mobilisation. In the same period, tests of prototype 6G stations in the U6G band with Qualcomm were announced. China Unicom and China SatNet also announced a 6G laboratory linking space, air and ground, and the goal of building by 2030 a modern communications network with leading parameters.

What it means in practice

For operators the coming years are still about investment in 5G, not in 6G. GSMA writes plainly about the second half of the decade being devoted to expanding fifth-generation coverage. For Europe the challenge will be not so much the standard as the scale: if China and East Asia generate the 6G volumes, European operators will enter the technology as buyers of ready-made solutions rather than co-authors of the standard. The conclusion from the forecast is therefore less sensational than the figure of 2.4 billion suggests: whoever's network reaches volume first sets the rules.