IMF study finds demand for AI-exposed jobs down nearly 10% across Asia

The IMF's latest Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific draws on 40 million online job postings across 19 Asian economies. The decline has stabilised even as AI capabilities improve.

The report warns the effects will unfold only over time. Surveys cited in it say 37% of companies plan to replace workers with AI by the end of 2026.

US data cuts both ways. The St. Louis Federal Reserve found a 0.47 correlation between AI exposure and unemployment increases from 2022 to 2025. Yale's Budget Lab found a slight employment increase in high-exposure roles through late 2025.

A taxonomy, not a binary

A white paper from the Centre for Responsible AI at IIT Madras takes up this question. It argues public debate compresses a complicated phenomenon into one binary: will AI take a given job, or not? AI rarely replaces a job wholesale, the paper says. More often it automates a bundle of tasks inside a job. That bundle's size varies with task structure, sector and regulatory setting. In India's case, it also varies with the economics of AI access.

The researchers propose a four-level framework: task, job, occupation, labour-market outcome. They split Indian job impact into two regimes. In the first, AI has automated most of the skill bundle, leaving the human largely validating output. In the second, the human remains the primary driver. Evidence comes from business process outsourcing, manufacturing, MSMEs, sanitation, financial services, law and software engineering.

Three recommendations follow. Keep encouraging AI diffusion, fund India-specific labour-market research, and pair adoption with structured worker-transition pathways.

Governments push skills, not headcount targets

Thailand's Permanent Secretary of Labour is Pol. Lt. Col. Wannapong Kotcharak. He took a similar message to the 150th meeting of the OECD's Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Committee. The meeting was in Paris on 15-16 October 2026. Bangkok calls its policy "Learn and Get a Budget, Graduate and Get a Job". It sits under Minister of Labour Julapun Amornvivat and centres on digital and AI upskilling tied to what employers need.

Acting Minister for Manpower Jasmin Lau spoke at the Singapore National Employers Federation's inaugural Employers Summit on 30 October. She said the government does not yet have a clear answer on how many jobs AI will replace. More than 300 business leaders attended. Employers, unions and the government should tackle potential shocks early, she said, rather than wait for safeguards drawn up in advance.

Graduates feel it first

South China Morning Post reported on 31 October on Nafeesa Azman. She is a 24-year-old Malaysian marketing graduate. She has applied for hundreds of jobs over two months. She has not found a permanent role that pays what she needs or uses her skills. Joshua Nai finished a three-year animation and game art diploma at Singapore Polytechnic in 2024. He dropped his gaming career plan after seeing how much AI-generated artwork the industry now uses.

Data Center Knowledge reported on 29 October on data centres. They create relatively few permanent jobs once construction ends. They still need technicians, network engineers, HVAC specialists and electricians.

What to watch

The IMF study cautions against one reading of the stabilisation. It is not proof that displacement risk has receded. The IIT Madras paper closes with a distributional analysis of who bears the cost of this reimagining.