PepsiCo values Poppi earnout at $12m, down from $278m
PepsiCo estimated the Poppi earnout at $12m as of 5 September 2026, down from $117m in June and $278m at the end of 2025, a regulatory filing reported by Bloomberg on 12 October showed.
Dr. Amara PatelEconomy, business and world
The filing
The regulatory filing put cumulative pre-tax adjustments to the contingent consideration at $105m over 12 weeks and $266m over 36 weeks. PepsiCo will pay the earnout only if Poppi meets undisclosed financial targets by the third quarter of 2027. It estimates the payout with Monte Carlo simulations based on discounted future cash flows, revenue and margin forecasts. Bloomberg reported on 12 October 2026 that Poppi is falling short of the growth benchmarks needed to trigger the bonus.
Deal terms
PepsiCo announced the acquisition at $1.95bn, including $300m of anticipated cash benefits, for a net purchase price of $1.65bn, KTNV reported. A regulatory filing cited by Investing.com put the cash purchase at $1.9bn and an additional earnout of up to $300m if undisclosed targets are met by the third quarter of 2027. At $12m, the estimate is 4% of the $300m maximum earnout. The $12m estimate equals less than 1% of the $1.9bn cash purchase price.
By 2024, Poppi had generated more than $500m in annual revenue, Fortune reported. Accounting rules require PepsiCo to book a liability for the earnout based on the likelihood it will be paid. PepsiCo announced the deal in March 2025 and bought Poppi in May 2025.
Poppi sales
Beverage-Digest reported that Poppi's volume and dollar sales declined at US retail in the first half of 2026 after a rocky distribution transition and a wave of new gut soda competitors. Olipop's sales growth decelerated too.
Investing.com reported that PepsiCo's North America Beverage segment generated $7.7bn in revenue in the third quarter, but organic volume declined slightly. Chief executive Ramon Laguarta said management remains dissatisfied with soft drink performance and plans to increase investment in Poppi alongside Pepsi and Mountain Dew. PepsiCo has kept spending behind the brand, including a Super Bowl commercial, promotional tie-ins with the Dallas Cowboys and Love Island USA, and new caffeine and relaxation lines.
Category growth
Prebiotic soda generated about $1.32bn in sales in the 52 weeks ending 4 October 2026, up 13% from a year earlier, FoodNavigator reported, citing Spate. Unit sales grew 15.6%. The category accounted for nearly three quarters of the $1.82bn modern soda total, and Spate data showed it was the main growth driver inside modern soda.
What happens next
PepsiCo is expected to publish fourth-quarter 2026 results on 11 February 2027, according to finanzen.ch. The Poppi earnout targets run to the third quarter of 2027. The financial targets that trigger the $300m have not been disclosed.
Sources
11- 01PepsiCo's Poppi devaluation raises questions about prebiotic soda's next chapterEN
- 02PepsiCo slashes valuation of Poppi bonus payouts as growth slowsEN
- 03PepsiCo cuts Poppi payout to USD 12 million as PepsiCo stock trades at EUR 114.19EN
- 04Longtime Pepsi Exec Moves To Unilever's Liquid I.V.EN
- 05Gut Soda Hiccup or Worse? Poppi Sales Fell in 2026. Olipop DeceleratedEN
- 06PepsiCo buys prebiotic soda brand Poppi to gain a foothold in functional drinksEN
- 07From Kitchen Experiment to $1.95 Billion: How Poppi Soda Captivated PepsiCoEN
- 08PepsiCo Is Proving the Market Right - The Food InstituteEN
- 09Pepsi with Fiber Is Real, and It’s Hitting the Internet on Black Friday - SporkedEN
- 10Mother Beverage/Poppi: Here's What Happened After Shark Tank - foodrepublic.comEN
- 11Pepsi Holiday Soda Flavor Release: Poppi Brings Back Cranberry FizzEN
All figures and quotations in this text come from the sources listed below.
Content prepared by the editorial team with AI assistance.
Dr. Amara Patel
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