SNE Research: CATL and BYD hold 54.6% of global EV battery market as EU weighs carbon reform

Global EV battery installations reached 844.2 GWh in the first eight months of 2026, up 19.7% year-on-year, according to South Korean market research firm SNE Research. August alone accounted for 116.8 GWh, a 14.3% rise on the same month a year earlier. The figures cover battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and conventional hybrids.

CATL stayed first with 333.0 GWh, up 25.2% year-on-year, and its share rose to 39.4% from 37.7% a year earlier. BYD was second at 127.9 GWh, up 6.2%, though its share slipped to 15.1% from 17.1%. CnEVPost, which reported the SNE data on 2 October, noted that the seven Chinese companies in the top 10 held a combined 73.3% of the market.

The shake-up below the top two is where the story gets interesting.

LG Energy Solution of South Korea held third place with 68.3 GWh, up just 0.9%, and its share fell to 8.1% from 9.6%. SNE Research said LGES continued supplying Tesla, GM, Hyundai Motor Group and Volkswagen, but its growth lagged well behind the overall market. Installations in North America fell 42.3% year-on-year to 14.6 GWh, offsetting gains in Europe and Asia. That single regional number is the clearest sign yet that the geography of battery demand is shifting away from the United States.

China's CALB ranked fourth with 44.4 GWh, up 32.6%, lifting its share to 5.3%. Gotion High-tech was fifth at 41.5 GWh, up 47.1%, with a share of 4.9%. Japan's Panasonic came sixth at 29.7 GWh, up 1.8%, supported by Tesla's North American sales, but its share fell to 3.5% from 4.1%. Eve Energy grew fastest among the leading group, up 53.9% to 29.5 GWh. SK On was the only top-10 company to shrink, down 14.5% to 24.9 GWh.

Those installation numbers matter for the carbon market argument because batteries and renewables are increasingly the same procurement decision. CleanTechnica reported on 29 September that a Transport & Environment analysis found the industry's depreciation figures for EVs omit five key variables. In the four largest EU markets, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, 2025 used-car transaction data showed a 12.9 percentage point depreciation gap between combustion and electric cars. Adjusting for subsidies, acquisition taxes, inflation and fleet composition cuts that gap by 80%, to 2.6 percentage points, T&E said.

Stef Cornelis, director of the Electric Fleets and Freight programs at T&E, said in the report: "The industry is painting an overly simplistic picture of EV depreciation to justify opposing EU fleet electrification targets. In reality, binding targets create market predictability, allowing leasing companies to manage depreciation with greater certainty."

T&E is pushing EU lawmakers to support the upcoming Corporate Clean Vehicles Regulation, which would set electrification targets for large companies' fleets. The group argues the regulation would secure sustained EV demand and close the remaining depreciation gap.

Brussels under pressure from member states

The carbon market reform fight is running in parallel. Italy and the Czech Republic have called on the EU to soften rules on carbon emission allowances and energy supply, Reuters reported on 29 September, with the two governments arguing that current costs are too heavy for industry and households. The European Commission has warned against "free lunches" in the overhaul, according to EU Perspectives on 1 October. Poland has demanded deep reform of the EU carbon market to shield industry and households, a position it has held since at least March. The EPP has pushed to soften the reforms to protect industry.

Those positions are not academic. Analysts have already lowered EU carbon price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 on the back of the reform proposals. The shape of the final text will determine how much of the decarbonisation cost lands on industrial balance sheets, and therefore how quickly European factories electrify their processes and buy the batteries and clean power that go with them.

Outside Europe, the demand picture is more straightforward. CleanTechnica reported on 1 October that Ecuador reached 19.3% EV share in August, with battery electric vehicles at 13.8% and plug-in hybrids at 5.5%. Sales through 2026 rose 276%, and in August alone 426%. BEVs passed 2,000 units in a month for the first time, and PHEVs passed 800. BYD remained the market leader, but its share fell from over 70% in 2024 to below 30% in 2026.

On the supply side, chip and materials capacity is expanding. Semiconductor Engineering's weekly review on 2 October reported that Samsung Electro-Mechanics will invest about $4.9bn to expand FCBGA package-substrate capacity in South Korea and Vietnam for AI servers, and that TOPPAN opened its first overseas FC-BGA substrate production site in Singapore. Infineon opened the first phase of a backend manufacturing hub in Bangkok. TSMC is reportedly evaluating a semiconductor manufacturing investment in Texas, per Bloomberg, which would expand its US footprint beyond a $265bn Arizona buildout.

Europe's space sector is making the same supply-chain argument that carbon market reformers make on the ground. At the Pretzl Connect 2026 press event in Budapest, Kate Underhill, future space transportation propulsion architect at the European Space Agency, told EE Times that Europe's reliance on foreign semiconductors creates risks for automotive, telecom and space hardware. She said space systems typically operate "at least 10 years behind consumer electronics," and described an ESA attempt to order 20 laser diodes from a German supplier that required a minimum order of 10,000 units. "If there is any U.S. component on your satellite, then you have to comply with U.S. regulations," Underhill said.

The political economy of the EU carbon market is not only about prices. It is about whether European manufacturers can secure the components, batteries and power they need at a cost that lets them compete. Solar offers a preview. Canary Media reported on 24 September that Tim Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor, took over as president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association in June. He described solar's political position in Washington as "relatively bleak" after Republicans gutted the Inflation Reduction Act's climate provisions in last year's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, but argued the domestic manufacturing incentives survived. "Eventually, the policymakers catch up to the facts," Pawlenty said. "We have really good facts on our side."

The Commission's carbon market proposal is expected to be the arena where those facts get tested. For battery makers, the near-term signal is already visible: Chinese producers are gaining share, North American installations are falling, and European demand depends on whether the regulatory framework makes electrification cheaper or more expensive for the companies that buy the cells.