Turkish Airlines cuts 2026 capacity growth target to about 3.5-4% from 10%

Capacity target cut after Middle East conflict

The 10% target was discussed before the Middle East conflict. Chairman Murat Şeker told the 4 November earnings call that the lower figure should be viewed as a more disciplined approach to growth, not a move away from growth. The airline expects fourth-quarter passenger capacity to grow 1-3%.

“This should be viewed not as a move away from growth, but as a more disciplined approach to growth,” Şeker said.

Capacity measured in available seat kilometres rose 3.2% in the third quarter. Passenger numbers rose 4.7% to 28.5 million. Passenger yields rose 9.9%, and the load factor gained 1.5 percentage points to 87.1%.

Profit falls as fuel costs jump

Revenue rose 19.3% to US$8.30bn in the quarter. Total operating expenses rose 25.3% to US$7.55bn, faster than revenue. Fuel alone reached US$2.61bn, against US$1.65bn a year earlier, the airline's financial statements show. Net income fell 6.4% to US$1.29bn.

The operating-profit figure, labeled profit from main operations, is separate from net income and from EBITDAR, the airline's measure before financing, taxes, depreciation, amortisation and aircraft rent. EBITDAR came to US$2.104bn at a 25.4% margin, down 4.2 percentage points from a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2026 it totalled US$3.778bn at a 17.6% margin, down 6.2 percentage points.

Cargo grew fastest. Cargo revenue rose 45.6% to US$1.23bn, against a 15.4% gain in passenger revenue to US$6.80bn.

Network shifts to Asia and Europe

Capacity to the Far East and Asia rose 18.1% in the quarter. European capacity rose 5.7%. The Americas fell 6.2% and the Middle East 21.6%.

The airline expects flights to Riyadh and Dammam to resume in the second half of November. It suspended them after recent attacks in Saudi Arabia. Services to Iran, Basra, Kirkuk and Aqaba remain suspended.

Hiring freeze and costs

Turkish has frozen hiring across the airline and almost all its subsidiaries. “We tried to limit recruitment and tried to limit the increase in personnel expenses,” Şeker said. Liquidity stood at US$10.2bn at the end of September against net debt of US$9.7bn.

Fleet delays constrain growth

Şeker said both manufacturers are running about 12 months late on deliveries. He said supply constraints were incidentally supporting capacity discipline in the short term, but planning uncertainty and delayed fleet renewal were outweighing the advantages.

The airline is also continuing longer-term fleet investment. On 23 September it agreed to buy 100 firm Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, with options on 50 more that are not firm orders. It also signed a memorandum of understanding with CFM International covering more than 300 LEAP-1B engines including spares.

What happens next

CFO Metin Gülşen said fuel costs per available seat kilometre could rise more than 80% year over year in the fourth quarter at current market prices. The airline expects non-fuel unit costs to rise by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage.

Şeker said capacity growth could reach 5-6% in 2027, but the airline was still working on its plans. It has deferred some investment decisions until it has a clearer view of conditions in 2027. Turkish could restore flying quickly if the Middle East improved, he said, but it would wait for clearer evidence of de-escalation before committing to substantial schedule changes.