Used EV values rise up to 28% in six months, Solera Cap HPI data shows

The recovery reaches past the classifieds. Used values set what a dealer offers on a trade-in and what a leasing company assumes a car will be worth at the end of a contract. They also shape confidence in new EVs. A buyer who expects a car to lose half its value in three years tends not to buy. Whether the rise survives December depends on how hard car makers discount new stock to chase the 2026 ZEV Mandate.

What Solera Cap HPI found

The benchmark is a three-year-old car with 30,000 miles. The comparison point is spring this year.

The biggest gainer in its top 10 is the Mini Electric.

A three-year-old Mini Electric with 30,000 miles now averages £12,710 in trade. That is up 28.3% from £9,905, a rise of £2,805 since spring. The Tesla Model 3 added £3,813 to reach £22,188, a gain of 20.9%. The Polestar 2 added £3,765 to reach £21,822 over the same period. The Cupra Born rose 19.9% and the Subaru Solterra 19.3%. Cheaper cars moved too. The Peugeot e-208 was up 17.4% to £11,262, and the MG4 was up 15.4% to £13,110.

These are trade values, the prices dealers pay. They are not the sticker on a forecourt.

Why fuel prices are doing the work

The driver is the pump.

Diesel in the UK has hovered around 195p a litre. That is close to £2. Petrol sits near £1.70. Electrifying.com links the fuel spike to Donald Trump's attacks on Iran at the beginning of 2026. Higher running costs pushed more drivers to consider electric alternatives. Online searches for used EVs jumped 50%, EV Powered reported.

Fuel is not the whole story. Supply of used electric cars has grown. Plumb said supply growth had depressed values before the recent recovery.

Chris Plumb is head of valuations at Solera Cap HPI. He rejected the idea that the market is running away with itself.

What we're really seeing is a recovery from previously depressed positions rather than a market running away with itself.

The demand signal in the stock data

Indicata, a separate valuation firm, published figures that point the same way on demand. In October, EVs had a Market Days Supply of 38 days, the lowest of any powertrain. They cleared faster than petrol, diesel or hybrid stock. EVs took 10% of sales but made up only 7.75% of stock. High fuel prices inflated diesel's figure to 56 days.

Indicata puts used EV prices up 2% since the summer. That is a shorter window than Solera's six months and a different measure. The two sets of figures are not directly comparable.

The discount risk hanging over Q4

Indicata's warning concerns what manufacturers do next. At the end of September, the new car market was 265,000 EV registrations short of the 2026 ZEV Mandate target, according to the firm. If makers discount new EVs heavily in the fourth quarter to close that gap, the cuts can work down into used values.

That would test a recovery Indicata itself calls fragile.

Dean Merritt is Indicata's national retail strategy manager. He put the risk in terms of who pays. He said residual values should not absorb the cost of the industry chasing its mandate targets.

We don't want to get to a stage where residual values foot the bill for the industry chasing the ZEV Mandate targets.

The warning is about risk, not a forecast that values will fall.

What happens next

Plumb's advice to buyers is to move before current deals get more expensive. He frames the market as recovering rather than surging.

For buyers, the practical question is timing. Plumb's view is that today's prices look cheap against where they are heading. Indicata's view is that a discount wave could make them cheaper still.

The next test is the fourth quarter itself. Neither Solera Cap HPI nor Indicata has said how deep year-end discounting will go. The ZEV Mandate arithmetic runs to the end of December. Until those registrations land, the 28% headline describes six months that have already happened, not the six months ahead.