China's export controls widen from goods to know-how as India vows to build its own TBMs

India draws a line as the TBM deadline approaches

Piyush Goyal did not hedge. At Kirori Mal College in Delhi on 3 November, India's commerce minister said the country would not compromise its strategic interests to secure critical technology.

"If they don't give us tunnel-boring machines, we will develop it in India," Goyal said. "India is not someone who will give in." The immediate risk is delay. India's metro expansion and high-speed rail projects could face additional challenges if supplies of the machines are held up. Whether Indian manufacturers can produce competitive TBMs quickly is unproven. Neither government has said how licences will be judged, which leaves buyers pricing a schedule they cannot check. For contractors, that is a procurement problem before it is a diplomatic one.

China's new export licensing requirements for TBMs and other specialised construction equipment take effect on 18 November 2026. They cover machines used in metro, rail and road projects.

From products to process knowledge

Beijing moved on 19 October. That day, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs put certain tunnel-boring machines and components under export control. Dredgers and specialised excavators designed for use above 3,000 metres were listed too. The altitude threshold gives it away. Civilian demand at that height is slight, except for roads and tunnels through the Himalayas. Three days earlier, on 16 October, MOFCOM and the Ministry of Science and Technology proposed adding 40 technologies to the catalogue of technologies prohibited or restricted from export. The two moves read as one policy.

The 40 technologies break down as 23 AI, 12 photovoltaic and 5 biomedicine. Fourteen would face an outright export ban. Twenty-six would require a licence.

The AI entries are performance-based. The draft covers models trained with at least 10^26 FLOPs of compute, or containing 2 trillion parameters. Public comments run until 15 November, and final rules are expected by the end of the year. Not everything waits for the consultation: registration requirements for certain technology transfers have already taken effect. The draft would bar foreign companies from obtaining model weights, training data or expertise needed to run Chinese AI systems independently. That is the ownership question, not the access question.

Access yes, ownership no

Foreign customers could still use Chinese AI through websites, apps and cloud platforms. Those access routes are exempt from export controls.

ORF described the aim as keeping the capability at home while exporting the output. The Manus affair exposed the loophole being closed. Meta was able to acquire the Chinese-founded AI agent app, and Chinese authorities subsequently blocked the deal. That distinction matters for any company running a Chinese model abroad. Beijing is also drafting rules that would let it sanction foreign companies and individuals for infringing Chinese trade secrets, with trade and investment restrictions and entry bans. MOFCOM will accept public comments on that draft until 24 November.

Why trading partners are nervous

China accounts for more than 80% of global solar-panel component production. In April, Chinese officials considered restricting exports of advanced solar manufacturing equipment to the US.

Reports said Tesla sought about $2.9bn of equipment from Chinese suppliers. Countries pursuing a China+1 strategy need more than components: they depend on importing process knowledge, equipment and engineers. Their factories need the recipes as much as the machines. Those controls sit against a slowing domestic economy. China lowered its 2026 growth target to 4.5-5%, the lowest since 1991, according to Bloomberg. Its trade surplus reached $938bn in January-September, putting it on course to surpass last year's annual record of $1.2tn. Exports are the main engine: third-quarter GDP rose 4.5% year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

What happens next

Until those texts are final, the practical question for buyers is narrower. Does a licence arrive in time for the project that needs it?

Three dates sit in the calendar. TBM export licensing takes effect on 18 November 2026. The consultation on the 40-technology catalogue closes on 15 November, with final rules expected by the end of the year. The trade-secret sanctions draft is open for comment until 24 November. For a metro contractor, only the first is a deadline that bites. The other two shape what comes after: whether process knowledge follows the machines out of China. Buyers will read the final texts for the licensing test, not for the rhetoric.