China's NEV retail share reaches record 67.8% despite falling sales

Record share, falling sales

China's passenger NEV retail penetration reached 67.8% in October, above September's record 67.0% and ahead of the CPCA's earlier forecast of 66.9%, the association said in its weekly report on Wednesday. NEV retail sales fell 10% year on year to 1.148 million, the tenth consecutive monthly decline. The drop was smaller than September's 16.7% fall and milder than the CPCA's 23 October projection of about 1.07 million, a 16.5% decline.

The record share does not mean demand is growing. Overall passenger car retail sales fell 25% year on year to 1.693 million, though they rose 5% from September. NEV retail sales rose 6% month on month. The CPCA said intra-month trends pointed to a lack of sustainability in demand release, after a modest recovery driven by National Day auto shows, local subsidies and peak-season promotions.

Petrol cars are shrinking faster

The share rose because combustion-engine sales are falling faster than electric sales. Fuel-only car sales fell 31% year on year in the first nine months of 2026, while battery EV sales fell 4%, according to CPCA data cited by Carbon Brief. Plug-in hybrid sales fell 26% over the same period. NEV sales overall fell 13% in 2026 to date, so the NEV share can climb even as volumes shrink.

CPCA secretary-general Cui Dongshu cited higher petrol prices as an explanation for weak combustion-car sales, Carbon Brief reported. The CPCA said high international oil prices kept vehicle operating costs elevated and caused a deeper-than-expected slump in internal combustion engine vehicle consumption. In the first four weeks of October, nationwide production of pure fuel light-duty vehicles fell 52% year on year to 386,000 units.

That is not a new trend. Sales of combustion-engine cars in China peaked in 2017 and have declined since, according to Carbon Brief. The October data extend a pattern in which the NEV share rises partly because the petrol-car base is shrinking.

Wholesale and the year to date

Passenger NEV wholesale reached 1.807 million in October, up 12% year on year and 8% from September, the CPCA said. Wholesale penetration was 68.6%. Cumulative NEV wholesale in the first 10 months reached 13.26 million, up 10% from a year earlier.

Retail remains weaker than wholesale. The CPCA said cumulative NEV retail sales fell 12% year on year to 8.907 million in the first 10 months. Overall passenger car retail sales fell 22% to 15.03 million. Passenger car wholesale fell 10% to 2.635 million in October and was down 6% to 22.37 million for the year to date.

The CPCA's preliminary October figures show a market where electric cars are taking a larger share of a smaller pie, not one returning to rapid growth.