Health Foundation forecasts 34.9-week waits against 18-week NHS target

The Health Foundation's modelling projects that the 92% share will be reached at 34.9 weeks instead, almost double the 18-week target, if current trends persist. In September 2025 the same analysis projected 20.3 weeks, so the forecast has moved further from the target. The 18-week standard is a constitutional target the government pledged to restore by the end of the current parliament.

The Health Foundation says progress has been made. Between July 2024 and July 2026, the share of patients treated within 18 weeks rose from 58.8% to 65.4%, and the number waiting more than a year fell from over 290,000 to about 111,400. But annual referrals climbed to 21.7 million, with referral growth accelerating from 1.5% in Labour's first year in office to 3.0% in its second. Removals from the list rose to 21.8 million a year, and now exceed referrals by a much smaller margin.

On the think tank's arithmetic, referrals growing at 3% a year would need removals to grow more than 4.5% annually. They are currently growing at 2.2%. The Health Foundation says the pledge is becoming increasingly hard to deliver.

"Thanks to the hard work of staff, the NHS has made progress in bringing down waiting times, but a rise in referrals means that the service is having to run faster just to stand still and the prospects of meeting the government's pledge are receding," said Francesca Cavallaro, senior analytical manager at the Health Foundation.

Waiting list rises

Separate NHS England figures for end-August show an estimated 7.37 million treatments were pending, covering 6.24 million patients. That is up from 7.33 million treatments and 6.21 million patients at end-July, and the highest since October 2025, when the list stood at 7.40 million treatments and 6.24 million patients.

Long waits rose too. An estimated 113,339 people had waited more than a year to start routine treatment at end-August, against 111,379 at end-July. NHS England said a record 4.7 million planned treatments, procedures and appointments took place across June, July and August.

The monthly figures drew comments from Health Secretary Yvette Cooper, who said the NHS was dealing with summer pressures as well as winter pressures. She credited doctors, nurses and staff with delivering record numbers of elective appointments, procedures and treatments while handling unprecedented A&E attendances and ambulance callouts. NHS England national medical director Professor Frankie Swords praised staff for record elective care this summer and said there were "ominous" early signs of winter pressure.

What happens next

The Health Foundation says a revised timetable may be necessary. It argues a more realistic approach could allow continued improvement in elective care while shifting attention to GP access and emergency care pressures. The government has yet to clarify whether the 18-week standard remains its central NHS performance target, the think tank notes.