Macau gaming revenue falls 10% in October as MGM China takes record share

October beats September and trails a year earlier

Macau's October gross gaming revenue came in at MOP$21.68 billion (US$2.69 billion), 10% below October 2025. The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau published the figure on 1 November.

The month had help. National Day Golden Week fell inside the period, and the NBA China Games were staged at The Venetian Macao early in the month. Measured against September, the market grew: October beat September's MOP$18.1 billion (US$2.24 billion) by 20.02%. Measured against a year earlier, it shrank by 10%. The year to date is still ahead of 2025, with the first 10 months producing MOP$208.79 billion (US$25.89 billion), up 1.6%. October's decline cut into that cumulative gain without erasing it.

For operators and investors, the print says holiday traffic and event programming are not enough to lift the market back to last year's level.

The two comparisons describe different parts of one market: more revenue than the month before, less than the same month a year earlier. What is not yet known is whether the sequential bounce carries into November and December. Analysts had warned that operators would keep facing headwinds, with conditions improving from a difficult September quarter rather than pressure ending outright.

MGM China takes record share while the market shrinks

MGM China's third-quarter gaming revenue market share reached 17.1%, above CLSA's forecast of 16.8%. In September alone it climbed to 19.2%.

Property EBITDA for the quarter was $305 million, up 3% from the prior quarter and 1% year on year, ahead of Morgan Stanley's $294 million estimate. Morgan Stanley said mass-market share rose 60 basis points quarter on quarter to 17.5%. It credited a high win rate at MGM Macau and a 50% quarter-on-quarter jump in slot revenue at MGM Cotai.

MGM Resorts put MGM China's quarterly revenue at $1.1 billion, a record, with 5% growth and record share of 17.1%.

The caveat sits in the win rates. CLSA estimated that a VIP baccarat win rate above normal levels added about HK$132 million to EBITDA, while mass-market win rate held at 27.7%. Morgan Stanley put luck-adjusted EBITDA at $291 million, down 4% quarter on quarter. Share won on favourable luck is harder to repeat than share won on more players.

The parent company's quarter was weaker

MGM Resorts' consolidated revenue was $4.2 billion, down 1% from the prior year quarter. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA fell to $403 million from $506 million. The net loss attributable to MGM Resorts narrowed to $17 million from $285 million a year earlier. On the Strip, revenue fell 2% to $2.0 billion and segment Adjusted EBITDAR dropped 12% to $531 million. Regional Operations revenue fell 8% to $883 million, though same-store revenue rose 1% after adjusting for dispositions.

MGM China was the bright spot inside that consolidated number, growing 5% to $1.1 billion.

Chief executive Bill Hornbuckle said lower room rates during the third quarter hurt results and that October had rebounded favourably. The release also flags MGM Osaka and the company's digital businesses as growth drivers for future quarters.

Nevada flat as hotel rates slide

Nevada casinos reported $1.282 billion in gaming win in September, down 0.05% from $1.283 billion a year earlier, according to the Nevada Gaming Control Board. The Strip rose 0.8% to $693.5 million, while downtown Las Vegas fell 7.5% to $82.6 million. It was the 67th consecutive month in which statewide win exceeded $1 billion. Visitors kept arriving, but they paid less for their rooms. Visitor volume rose 0.2% to nearly 3.1 million, while average daily room rate fell 6.3% to $178.63 and revenue per available room dropped 7% to $139.51.

Gaming win for July through September was nearly $3.94 billion, up 1.7% year on year.

The Strip generated $2.15 billion of that, also up 1.7%, while downtown fell 6.6% to $212.5 million.

What to watch

Macau's industry gross gaming revenue for the third quarter was MOP$60.4 billion (US$7.47 billion). That was down 3.7% year on year and 1.3% from the previous quarter, with softer premium mass revenue the main reason. Truist Securities said the base mass segment has been the slowest to recover after COVID. Analysts expected headwinds to be milder than in the September quarter as comparisons ease into 2027.

MGM China management said the share gains carried into early in the fourth quarter. UBS noted the company reiterated guidance for margins in the mid-to-high 20% range. Whether October's 20.02% sequential bounce holds through November and December is the open question. The other is how much of MGM China's share gain came from win rates rather than from more customers.