Freight benchmarks split as Shanghai container index stays 137.79% above year ago

The benchmarks no longer agree. Importers and exporters price the fourth quarter on indexes that point in different directions. Asian refiners already pay the difference in freight, fuel and rerouting. Carriers announced November general rate increases on Asia-Europe. Nobody has settled whether they can hold against the capacity still on the water.

Benchmarks split as the Shanghai index holds flat

NYFI rose on all five monitored lanes in its 30 October assessment. Drewry's World Container Index fell 3% to $4,429 per 40-foot container on 29 October. On the Transpacific, NYFI put Asia-US West Coast up 1.92% at 7,724.52. It put Asia-US East Coast up 1.89% at 10,125.18. Drewry went the other way on the same trade. Shanghai-Los Angeles fell 6% to $7,514, and Shanghai-New York fell 5% to $9,631. Asia-North Europe rose 5.40% to 3,203.78 on the NYFI. The Transatlantic eastbound leg jumped 18.77% to 1,124.31. The SCFI edged up 0.16%. The CCFI rose 0.30% to 1,881.82, and the Ningbo index fell 0.72% to 2,491.26.

Carriers announced six blank sailings on the Transpacific. That compares with five in the current week, and four on Asia-Europe against eight. Drewry cited a National Retail Federation forecast of an 11% month-on-month fall in US ocean import volumes during November.

Trading Economics put the index 0.68% higher over the month. It remains below the all-time high set in January 2022.

Tanker earnings and fuel costs after Hormuz

UNCTAD published its report on Strait of Hormuz disruptions on 29 October. It shows how far the tanker market has moved. The Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index reached 371 by 19 October, against a baseline of 100 on 27 February. The Clean Tanker Index reached 280. Daily earnings for VLCCs on the Middle East-China route rose from about $56,000 on 9 January to $1.37 million on 16 October. West Africa-China went from about $55,000 to $720,000 a day. The US Gulf Coast-China route went from $60,000 to $559,000.

Fuel got dearer too. Bunker prices were 72% higher by 20 October than their average in the six months before the conflict. Diesel was up 81%, jet fuel up 80% and gasoline up 64%.

Crude across four regional benchmarks averaged about $108 a barrel on 19 October. That compares with about $66 at the start of the period. Up to 28% of global diesel exports, roughly 2.3 million barrels a day, face export-restricting measures introduced since March 2026.

Refiners absorb the freight bill

The freight depends on the source. Indian refiners pay $10-20 a barrel in freight, industry executives told The Economic Times. Physical crude trades about $20 a barrel above a Brent futures price of $115.

Margins have taken the hit. The International Energy Agency said the surge in delivered crude costs pushed margins for Asian refiners into negative territory in September. Those refiners process Middle East crude. Kpler analyst Matt Wright wrote that the market is short of vessels. They must be willing and able to operate efficiently in the Middle East Gulf. War risk there has changed freight pricing. Azernews reported a single supertanker voyage at $80 million. The route ran from the United States to China. That is about $40 a barrel in transport on a two-million-barrel cargo. Saudi Arabia cut Asian prices by $5-7 a barrel. That is not enough to offset transport costs. Around 50 supertankers sit as floating storage in the Persian Gulf.