IATA: 5.085 billion passengers will fly in 2026, but profit will halve

IATA's forecast for 2026 shows an industry living in two worlds at once: record passenger numbers and a thinner margin. Carriers will fly 5.085 billion people, 118 million more than the estimated 4.967 billion in 2025 and 525 million more than in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. In 2020, 1.779 billion passengers flew.

The number of people travelling origin to destination, counting connections only once, should reach 4.343 billion, and flights should total 38.7 million. Traffic measured in passenger kilometres (RPK) will rise by just 2.1 percent, against 5.3 percent in 2025. Seat capacity (ASK) will increase by 1.6 percent, and the passenger load factor will come in at 84.0 percent, against 83.5 percent a year earlier and 82.6 percent in 2019.

Revenue up, profit down

Industry revenue will reach USD 1.165 trillion, 9.4 percent more than in 2025. Passenger traffic accounts for USD 839 billion, cargo for USD 162 billion and ancillary services for USD 165 billion. Profitability is improving: revenue per passenger kilometre in real terms gains 7.0 percent, and total unit revenue 7.5 percent.

Costs, though, are rising faster, to USD 1.117 trillion in total, up 13.0 percent. Fuel is the largest item at USD 350 billion, or 31.4 percent of all spending. IATA's forecast assumes Brent at 95 dollars a barrel, against 69 dollars in 2025, and jet fuel at 152 dollars a barrel, against 90 dollars a year earlier.

The result: industry net profit will fall by nearly half, from USD 45.0 billion in 2025, at a 4.2 percent margin, to USD 23.0 billion in 2026, a 2.0 percent margin. Operating profit (EBIT) will come to USD 48.0 billion, equal to 4.1 percent of revenue.

Europe best, Middle East in the red

By region, Europe will post the highest net profit at USD 9.6 billion. North America follows with USD 9.4 billion and Asia-Pacific with USD 6.6 billion. The Middle East will record a net loss of USD 4.3 billion and a negative operating margin of minus 2.7 percent. In the region, RPK traffic will shrink by 11.4 percent and seat capacity by 4.4 percent.

Africa is growing fastest, with RPKs set to rise by 10.0 percent. All 2026 figures are a forecast based on data from June 2026, not a result already achieved. In the airline business, such estimates can change within a few months.