Novo Nordisk raises 2026 outlook as Wegovy pill sales beat forecasts

Guidance raised, but the range still allows a decline

Novo Nordisk now expects 2026 adjusted sales and operating profit growth of between a 2% decline and 2% growth at constant exchange rates. The prior range was flat to a 6% decline, itself an upgrade in August from an earlier warning of a decline of up to 13%. Reuters and Free Malaysia Today called it the third raise this year; BigGo Finance and ad-hoc-news described it as the second in three months.

The company said the improved outlook was driven by increased expectations for GLP-1 product sales. Reuters reported the guidance assumes international growth alongside a US decline.

Third-quarter adjusted sales were DKK 79.20bn against a DKK 73.22bn consensus cited by Reuters. Adjusted operating profit was DKK 31.72bn, up 27% at constant exchange rates, against DKK 28.39bn expected. Sales rose 4% at constant exchange rates from DKK 74.98bn a year earlier.

AskTraders cited a higher sales consensus of DKK 73.6bn and adjusted operating profit of DKK 28.6bn. JPMorgan analyst Richard Vosser called the quarter an 8% sales beat and a 12% operating profit beat, with the guidance implying upgrades of about 3% to consensus, BigGo Finance reported.

The pill carries the quarter

The Wegovy pill, launched in the US in January, generated DKK 5.39bn in the quarter, up 53% from the second quarter. US sales contributed DKK 4.18bn and international markets DKK 1.22bn. US prescriptions reached about 3.6 million in the quarter and more than 8 million since launch, Novo said.

The pill is only about 6% of expected sales, but analysts see it as Novo's main route back to growth after a two-year slump of profit warnings and a leadership change, Reuters reported.

US sales of injectable Wegovy fell 13% at constant exchange rates, while combined US Wegovy sales rose 21%. Novo's US head said a government programme letting US seniors buy obesity drugs for USD 50 a month, which began in July, was largely behind the roughly 20% quarter-on-quarter rise in pill volumes. Without it, the US obesity drug category was roughly flat from May to October, he said.

Novo said the wider Wegovy franchise holds more than 50% of new patient starts among branded obesity drugs. It estimates the pill has about 80% of new-to-brand US prescriptions across reimbursed, cash-pay and telehealth channels.

Reported profit falls on impairments

Reported operating profit fell 9% at constant exchange rates to DKK 23.0bn after DKK 8.7bn of non-cash impairments. These included DKK 4.6bn tied to ziltivekimab and DKK 4.1bn to right-sizing the manufacturing network, Novo said.

The 27% adjusted profit rise was flattered by the comparison base: the third quarter of 2025 carried DKK 9bn of company-wide transformation costs. Jefferies estimated that about DKK 2bn of pricing and reimbursement effects lifted the sales beat, and said stripping them out still left a beat of roughly 5%, according to ad-hoc-news.

Obesity sales rose 22% at constant exchange rates to DKK 26.15bn. Diabetes revenue slipped 5% to DKK 47.55bn.

Shares rise, price test ahead

Novo shares rose as much as 6.6% in early trade and were up 4.2% at 1318 GMT, headed for their biggest daily gain since 19 June, Reuters reported. They remain down about 17% this year.

From 1 January 2027, Novo will cut US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic to USD 675 a month, roughly 50% for Wegovy and 35% for Ozempic, according to Reuters. The company expects the move to weigh on cash flow next year. List prices are not net revenue, so the hit cannot be read straight across.

Rollout and pipeline

Novo plans to launch the pill in more than 20 countries by mid-2027, pulling the target forward from end-2027, citing high manufacturing output and faster approvals. The pill is sold in the US, UAE, UK and Germany, plus four more markets added recently, for eight in total.

CagriSema, the next-generation obesity shot, is awaiting US regulatory approval, with a launch expected in early 2027. Outgoing CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen told Endpoints News Novo will not launch it in Europe for another "a couple of years".

Knudsen leaves at the end of December after 27 years. Novo named Galderma finance chief Luigi La Corte as his successor.