NASA reopens Hubble servicing question as Swift falls back to Earth

NASA reopens the servicing question

The request for information asks what "in-space servicing" could do for Hubble. Options include raising the telescope's orbit, which is decaying because of atmospheric drag, or a mission to enhance its capabilities.

The document also allows for the opposite outcome. NASA listed a "safe, controlled reentry into Earth's atmosphere or orbital disposal at the end of Hubble's mission" among the scenarios industry may address.

Jared Isaacman, who became NASA administrator in December 2025, said in a 30 October agency statement that Hubble's science return means the agency should "be looking at every reasonable opportunity to keep it delivering for as long as possible". He added on X that it is "still worth exploring the options," noting NASA had previously weighed a far lower-cost solution. Isaacman said a servicing mission should be weighed against the expense of launching a replacement observatory.

That is a shift. In 2022 Isaacman, then a billionaire tech entrepreneur, proposed using SpaceX hardware to fly a Hubble servicing mission. NASA declined, citing possible risks to a healthy observatory.

Hubble's record is why the question keeps returning. Its observations helped show that the expansion of the universe is accelerating, work that won a Nobel Prize.

Why Hubble is still worth arguing about

Hubble is not a museum piece yet. Astronomers request about seven times as much observing time as is available each year, NASA said in September. Its observations have supported at least 23,000 scientific papers, according to agency figures.

New science keeps arriving. A team using 14 years of Hubble data traced the Cat's Tail, a structure extending from the Beta Pictoris debris disk 63 light-years away, and concluded it probably formed when two Pluto-sized bodies collided. Hubble and Webb, observing the same patch of sky, also found 27 previously unknown trans-Neptunian objects in the deepest survey of that region so far.

The telescope launched in April 1990 with the European Space Agency as partner. Shuttle astronauts serviced it five times, most recently in 2009.

The deadline is orbital drag

NASA says Hubble will reenter Earth's atmosphere naturally in 2033 or 2034. Any servicing attempt would therefore have to fly in 2032.

The request for information commits nobody to anything. NASA has not said what a servicing mission would cost or which company would fly it. The nearest recent price tag for a commercial orbit boost is the $30 million NASA put toward the Swift attempt.

Swift shows how a rescue can fail

That attempt did not work. NASA worked with Katalyst Space Technologies on a mission to raise the orbit of the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, which was also dropping toward Earth. Katalyst's LINK spacecraft launched successfully this summer, but control problems prevented it from meeting up with Swift.

Swift reached the point of no return at 275 kilometres on 20 October and was shut down. That was down from about 340 kilometres in June.

It has no propulsion left. The observatory cannot lift itself or steer toward a controlled landing. It launched in 2004, ran for 22 years against a two-year design lifetime, and detected at least 1,400 supernovas. The 1.5-tonne spacecraft, about the size of a minibus with solar-panel wings, is now travelling at roughly 8 kilometres a second.

Predictions still differ. The NASA-funded SWORD program put reentry at about 4:37am AEDT on 4 November, give or take a few hours, while the Aerospace Corporation said 8:11pm AEDT, give or take 12 hours. Swift's orbit stays within about 21 degrees of the equator, a band that is mostly ocean but crosses populated parts of Africa, South and Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Brad Tucker of the Australian National University put the odds plainly. "If 70 per cent of the Earth is ocean, 30 per cent is land," he said. "So three out of 10 times it's on land, not ocean".

Swift is also part of a trend. Darren McKnight of LeoLabs told Space.com that 10 times more objects reenter each year than five years ago. Dean Sladen of Accu Components said the end usually arrives within minutes once a satellite drops to about 120 kilometres, with most of the body melting and vaporising. The six heavy reaction wheels and tougher telescope parts may reach the surface, he said.

What happens next

The landing point will stay uncertain until the final orbits.

For Hubble, the next move is NASA's. The agency has not set a date for choosing between a boost and a disposal, or said who would pay for either.